Most Popular Books by William J. Bernstein

A timeless approach to investing wisely over an investment lifetime With the current market maelstrom as a background, this timely guide describes just how to plan a lifetime of investing, in good times and bad, discussing stocks and bonds as well as the relationship between risk and return. Filled with in-depth insights and practical advice, The Investor''s Manifesto will help you understand the nuts and bolts of executing a lifetime investment plan, including: how to survive dealing with the investment industry, the practical meaning of market efficiency, how much to save, how to maintain discipline in the face of panics and manias, and what vehicles to use to achieve financial security and freedom. Written by bestselling author William J. Bernstein, well known for his insights on how individual investors can manage their personal wealth and retirement funds wisely Examines how the financial landscape has radically altered in the past two years, and what investors should do about it Contains practical insights that the everyday investor can understand Focuses on the concept of Pascal''s Wager-identifying and avoiding worst-case scenarios, and planning investment decisions on that basis With The Investor''s Manifesto as your guide, you''ll quickly discover the timeless investment approaches that can put you in a better position to prosper over time.

Sound, sensible advice from a hero to frustrated investors everywhere William Bernstein''s The Four Pillars of Investing gives investors the tools they need to construct top-returning portfolios--without the help of a financial adviser. In a relaxed, nonthreatening style, Dr. Bernstein provides a distinctive blend of market history, investing theory, and behavioral finance, one designed to help every investor become more self-sufficient and make better-informed investment decisions. The 4 Pillars of Investing explains how any investor can build a solid foundation for investing by focusing on four essential lessons, each building upon the other. Containing all of the tools needed to achieve investing success, without the help of a financial advisor, it presents: Practical investing advice based on fascinating history lessons from the market Exercises to determine risk tolerance as an investor An easy-to-understand explanation of risk and reward in the capital markets

The classic guide to constructing a solid portfolio―without a financial advisor! First published two decades ago, The Four Pillars of Investing has been the go-to resource for an entire generation of investors. This updated edition of the investing classic provides the foundational knowledge you need to avoid the most common pitfalls and build a portfolio in today’s roller-coaster world of investing. Retired neurologist and master investor William J. Bernstein has seen it all throughout his career. Buying investments with borrowed money. Chasing past performance. Overestimating one’s own risk tolerance. Listening to cable news. These are just a few of the many mistakes he has witnessed smart, serious investors make, to the peril of their portfolios. Add to these behavioral errors such economic factors as deflation, sudden stock declines, soaring inflation, and the like—and investing can seem like something to be avoided at all costs. But with the right discipline and knowledge, you can build and manage an impressive portfolio. It all comes down to understanding four key pillars: Theory: Risk and return go hand in hand—you can’t make money without risk History: Understand past markets to understand today’s markets Psychology: Avoid the most common behavioral mistakes that tank portfolios Business: The cost of investment services can be high—unreasonably high After taking you on a deep dive into each of these topics, Bernstein walks you through the process of designing and maintaining a powerful portfolio. Times have changed. Economies have changed. And markets are ever-changing. But sound investing principles haven’t changed. Use The Four Pillars of Investing to stay a step ahead of your investing peers and build a portfolio to be proud of.

The classic guide to constructing a solid portfolio—without a financial advisor! “With relatively little effort, you can design and assemble an investment portfolio that, because of its wide diversification and minimal expenses, will prove superior to the most professionally managed accounts. Great intelligence and good luck are not required.” William Bernstein’s commonsense approach to portfolio construction has served investors well during the past turbulent decade—and it’s what made The Four Pillars of Investing an instant classic when it was first published nearly a decade ago. This down-to-earth book lays out in easy-to-understand prose the four essential topics that every investor must master: the relationship of risk and reward, the history of the market, the psychology of the investor and the market, and the folly of taking financial advice from investment salespeople. Bernstein pulls back the curtain to reveal what really goes on in today’s financial industry as he outlines a simple program for building wealth while controlling risk. Straightforward in its presentation and generous in its real-life examples, The Four Pillars of Investing presents a no-nonsense discussion of: The art and science of mixing different asset classes into an effective blend The dangers of actively picking stocks, as opposed to investing in the whole market Behavioral finance and how state of mind can adversely affect decision making Reasons the mutual fund and brokerage industries, rather than your partners, are often your most direct competitors Strategies for managing all of your assets—savings, 401(k)s, home equity—as one portfolio Investing is not a destination. It is a journey, and along the way are stockbrokers, journalists, and mutual fund companies whose interests are diametrically opposed to yours. More relevant today than ever, The Four Pillars of Investing shows you how to determine your own financial direction and assemble an investment program with the sole goal of building long-term wealth for you and your family.

William J. Bernstein promises to lay out an investment strategy that any seven year old could understand and will take just 15 minutes of work per year. He also promises it will beat 90% of finance professionals in the long run, but still make you a millionaire over time. Bernstein is addressing young Americans just embarking on their working careers. Bernstein advocates saving 15% of one''s salary starting no later than age 25 into tax-sheltered savings plans (IRA or 401(k) in the U.S., RRSPs or Registered Pension Plans in Canada), and divvying up the money into just three mutual funds: a U.S. total stock market index fund, an international stock market index fund and a U.S. total bond market index fund. For millennials, saving 15% of salary is the financial equivalent of dying, which is why Bernstein titles his document ''IF you can.''

Time-Tested Techniques - Safe, Simple, and Proven Effective - for Building Your Own Investment Portfolio. "As its title suggest, Bill Bernstein''s fine book honors the sensible principles of Benjamin Graham in the Intelligent Investor Bernstein''s concepts are sound, his writing crystal clear, and his exposition orderly. Any reader who takes the time and effort to understand his approach to the crucial subject of asset allocation will surely be rewarded with enhanced long-term returns." - John C. Bogle, Founder and former Chief Executive Officer, The Vanguard Group President, Bogle Financial Markets Research Center Author, common Sense on Mutual Funds. "Bernstein has become a guru to a peculiarly ''90s group: well-educated, Internet-powered people intent on investing well - and with minimal ''help'' from professional Wall Street." - Robert Barker, Columnist, BusinessWeek. "I go home and tell my wife sometimes, ''I wonder if [Bernstein] doesn''t know more than me.'' It''s humbling." - John Rekenthaler, Research Chief, Morningstar Inc. William Bernstein is an unlikely financial hero. A practicing neurologist, he used his self-taught investment knowledge and research to build one of today''s most respected investor''s websites. Now, let his plain-spoken The Intelligent Asset Allocator show you how to use the time-honored techniques of asset allocation to build your own pathway to financial security - one that is easy-to-understand, easier-to-apply, and supported by 75 years of solid history and wealth-building results.

FROM THE BESTSELLING AUTHOR OF THE INTELLIGENT ASSET ALLOCATOR Praise for The Birth of Plenty: "Bill Bernstein has given us a compact and immensely readable economic, political, military, and institutional history of our civilization that is a tour de force. Put everything else down. Take a deep breath. Open The Birth of Plenty. And prepare to be amazed. --John C. Bogle, Founder and Former CEO, The Vanguard Group "The Birth of Plenty is a brilliantly written, whirlwind account of how the modern world was formed. It is a hugely enjoyable read, full of vigor and liveliness, and a book every American should possess--at least those who treasure our abundant life and care about our future." --William Schultheis, Author, The Coffeehouse Investor "Put simply, this is my favorite economic history book. It gathers what is interesting about economic history to draw important lessons." --Ed Tower, Professor of Economics, Duke University "William Bernstein scrutinizes the research literature, distills it with originality and insight, then shares the results with classic Bernstein clarity and wit. Ideologues on both political wings should prepare to have their assumptions challenged." --Bernard Sherman, Host, Talk of Iowa - Focus on Finance radio show A daring look at the development of human prosperity--how it was created, and where it''s headed In the breakthrough spirit of Against the Gods, William Bernstein''s The Birth of Plenty has the topical uniqueness and storytelling panache to literally create its own category and reader. Based upon the premise that mankind experienced virtually zero economic growth from the dawn of time until 1820, this provocative, bigpicture book identifies the four conditions necessary for sustained economic progress--property rights, scientific rationalism, capital markets, and communications and transportation technology-- and then analyzes their gradual appearance and impact throughout every corner of the globe. Filled with bestselling author William Bernstein''s trademark meticulous research and page-turning writing style, The Birth of Plenty explores: Where the world economy could be headed next Implications of the book''s thesis for today''s society How the absence of one or more of the conditions continues to threaten beleaguered regions Rare is the book that proposes an entirely new premise, validates that premise with inarguable research and analysis, and then explains beyond question both the relevance and the implications of its premise to the reader and the world at large. The Birth of Plenty is just such a book. From its unique, topical subject matter to its tremendous review potential, this insightful book will be one of the most talked-about volumes of the publishing season.

This “disturbing yet fascinating” exploration of mass mania through the ages explains the biological and psychological roots of irrationality (Kirkus Reviews). From time immemorial, contagious narratives have spread through susceptible groups—with enormous, often disastrous, consequences. Inspired by Charles Mackay’s nineteenth-century classic Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, neurologist and author William Bernstein examines mass delusion through the lens of current scientific research in The Delusions of Crowds. Bernstein tells the stories of dramatic religious and financial mania in western society over the last five hundred years—from the Anabaptist Madness of the 1530s to the dangerous End-Times beliefs that pervade today’s polarized America; and from the South Sea Bubble to the Enron scandal and dot com bubbles. Through Bernstein’s supple prose, the participants are as colorful as their “desire to improve one’s well-being in this life or the next.” Bernstein’s chronicles reveal the huge cost and alarming implications of mass mania. He observes that if we can absorb the history and biology of this all-too-human phenomenon, we can recognize it more readily in our own time, and avoid its frequently dire impact.

This booklet takes portfolio design beyond the familiar "black box" mean-variance framework. Most importantly, the short-term volatility of financial assets, commonly measured as standard deviation, is a highly imperfect measure of the actual long-horizon perils faced by real-world investors subject to the vagaries of financial and military history. These risks have names--inflation, deflation, confiscation, and devastation--and any useful discussion of portfolio design of necessity incorporates their probabilities, consequences, and costs of mitigation ... This booklet contains ... with luck, a framework within income and all-equity portfolios. This booklet contains ... with luck, a framework within which to think more clearly about risk. Note: the entire Investing for Adults series is not for beginners.

A Financial Times and Economist Best Book of the Year exploring world trade from Mesopotamia in 3,000 BC to modern globalization. How did trade evolve to the point where we don’t think twice about biting into an apple from the other side of the world? In A Splendid Exchange, William J. Bernstein, bestselling author of The Birth of Plenty, traces the story of global commerce from its prehistoric origins to the myriad controversies surrounding it today. Journey from ancient sailing ships carrying silk from China to Rome in the second century to the rise and fall of the Portuguese monopoly on spices in the sixteenth; from the American trade battles of the early twentieth century to the modern era of televisions from Taiwan, lettuce from Mexico, and T-shirts from China. Bernstein conveys trade and globalization not in political terms, but rather as an ever-evolving historical constant, like war or religion, that will continue to foster the growth of intellectual capital, shrink the world, and propel the trajectory of the human species. “[An] entertaining and greatly enlightening book.” —The New York Times “A work of which Adam Smith and Max Weber would have approved.” —Foreign Affairs “[Weaves] skillfully between rollicking adventures and scholarship.” —Pietra Rivoli, author of The Travels of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy

From the birth of writing in Mesopotamia to the technologies of today, Bernstein documents the technology of media, a revolutionary tool that allowed rulers to extend their control far and wide, giving rise to the world''s first empires. Writing gave rise to the world''s empires and the birth of drama and democracy. But it is not just new communication technologies that have changed the world -- it is access to them. Vernacular bibles gave rise to religious dissent, but it was only when the combination of cheaper paper and Gutenberg''s printing press drove down the cost of books by 97 percent that the fuse of Reformation was lit. The Industrial Revolution allowed information to move faster and farther than ever before, though it concentrated power and enabled totalitarian governments. With the twenty-first century boom of the mobile Internet, control of media has again spread, and the world is both more connected and freer than ever before.

Rational Expectations is a clean sheet of paper in the wonky world of quantitatively based asset allocation aimed at small investors. Continuing the theme of the Investing for Adults series, this full-length finance title is not for beginners, but rather assumes a fair degree of quantitative ability and finance knowledge. If you think you can time the market or pick stocks and mutual fund managers, or even if you think that you can formulate an optimally efficient mean-variance asset allocation with a black box, then learn some basic finance and come back in a few years. On the other hand, if you know your way around risk premiums and standard deviations and know who Irving Fisher and Benjamin Graham were, and if you want to sharpen your asset class skills, you''ve come to the right place.

Una historia exhaustiva del comercio en el mundo –desde Mesopotamia en 3000 a.C. hasta la tormentosa globalización de hoy en día- que explora con brillantez el pasado abigarrado y beligerante del comercio, y aporta nuevas perspectivas de su futuro. Adam Smith escribió que el hombre posee “una propensión” innata “a comerciar, hacer trueques e intercambiar unas cosas con otras”. Pero ¿cómo es posible que el comercio evolucionara hasta el punto que nosotros mordemos una manzana del otro lado del mundo como si fuese la cosa más natural? El autor comienza la narración en la antigua Mesopotamia y acaba en la era moderna de los televisores de Taiwan y las camisetas de China.

──如果只能讀一本投資書，這本就夠了！── 美國最大共同基金公司先鋒集團創辦人、指數化投資教父約翰．柏格（John C. Bogle） 投資學經典《漫步華爾街》作者伯頓‧墨基爾（Burton G. Malkiel）等人力薦 亞馬遜書店理財暢銷榜二十年長踞不墜，中文版累銷超過六萬冊 備受讚譽的指數化投資殿堂級教本．大幅改寫新譯版 以當代角度重新剖析投資四大支柱──「理論」、「歷史」、「心理學」、「產業」 並提出適合各年齡段、各類型投資人的具體策略建議 從入門到資深的當代投資人都該讀、讓你少走冤枉路的絕佳好書 財經作家、「綠角財經筆記」站長 綠角 專文導讀推薦── 「投資界有一位我最重視的專家，他寫的每本書、每篇文章、每場訪談，我都會閱讀與追蹤，那就是本書作者威廉．伯恩斯坦。 威廉．伯恩斯坦值得關注的理由並不是因為他可以準確預知市場何時即將大跌，下一支飆股為何，而是因為他講的都是有憑有據的投資原則。《投資金律》是他所有著作中最知名的一本，自2002年刊行以來，幫助了全球無數投資人建立投資觀念，實行投資計畫，為自己取得更美好的財務未來。 二十年過後，經歷了2008金融海嘯、2020新冠肺炎疫情，2022連續升息等市場動蕩，作者納入最新的觀察與體會，推出新版《投資金律》。假如你已經看到這段文字，千萬不要錯過本書內容，那是真正的投資珍寶。」 —— ◤被動式指數化投資先驅，投資學經典之作全面更新版！◢ 威廉．伯恩斯坦，除了是位在專業上受人景仰的醫生外，在投資領域他更是受人尊重的智者，處女作《智慧型資產配置》至今仍廣受尊崇，而《投資金律》這部成名作更是受到高度肯定，書中的獨到見解獲得投資泰斗先鋒集團創辦人約翰．柏格、《漫步華爾街》作者伯頓．墨基爾及《商業周刊》等專業媒體的讚譽，自2002年出版後長銷不墜，被譽為是所有投資人、從新手至專家皆該閱讀的投資經典。 而在出版二十年後，因應全球投資環境及工具的高度變化，以及伯恩斯坦本人對金融理財相關知識觀念的學習與演進，他著手大幅度更新改寫《投資金律》內容，於2023年重新出版，讓這部投資學經典再度跟上最新世界投資市場實況。從資料數據、工具到投資哲學與方法，以及從近二十年來發生的重大市場事件，如2008年的金融海嘯、2019年的Covid-19、2022年股票與債券的大屠殺等獲得的新觀點，皆囊括於此次更新內容中。 ◤從投資理論、歷史、心理到產業，一次吸收美國最優秀投資顧問的一生絕學◢ 透過簡明易懂的敘述分析及真實生活中的投資案例，本書將帶你從各個面向理解投資行為，以循序漸進的十八堂課，剖析每位投資人都該熟知的投資四大支柱，幫助你快速建立最正確的投資觀念，打造低風險且能真正獲利的投資組合。這四大支柱分別是： ▍投資理論：理解風險與報酬的關係、如何看待折現率與股價、通貨膨脹在預測報酬率時扮演的腳色、預期長期股市報酬的「高登方程式」該如何參考、為什麼我們不該依賴基金經理人、不同年齡階段成年投資人的資產配置該如何規畫……－－「報酬與風險密不可分，形影不離。」 ▍投資歷史：投資市場長達數千年演進的歷史與實質意義、回顧市場處於高點狂熱與谷底蕭條時的不變定律、經濟泡沫出現的四個典型特徵、安然度過市場谷底的策略……──「我們必須從他人的錯誤中學習，因為我們沒有足夠長的生命去一一犯下所有過錯。」 ▍投資心理學：最常導致投資錯誤的三種思考偏誤、我們為何會受「以偏概全」重創、與各種人性偏誤周旋的策略──「在追求投資成就的道路上，你的最大障礙就是鏡中那個凝視著你的自己。」 ▍投資產業：金融產業三大支柱－－證券經紀商、共同基金、財金媒體的運作策略與目標，以及你該如何跟他們打交道：如何分辨投資顧問的好壞、千萬不要為了投資購買保險商品、漸入佳境的共同基金與它的妖魔化、指數股票型基金（ETF）的優勢與陷阱、該如何分辨能相信的財金媒體與網路資訊──「雖然整個金融產業已經不像過去那麼危險，但你還是有必要提高警覺。」 「如果對投資的心理學、歷史和投資產業本身缺乏實務上的認識，即使是最優秀的投資理論大師都會成為災星。這四個廣泛領域都非常值得我們深入研究，而且，這些研究就如同椅子的四隻腳，只要拆掉其中任何一隻腳，你的投資策略肯定會失敗。」 除了上述四大支柱之外，伯恩斯坦在最後一部「投資策略：整合思考」中，將進一步告訴你如何整合上述四大投資金律，建立、維護、享用一個首尾一貫的投資組合策略，達到獲致理想財富的最終目標。 投資是一趟沒有目的地的旅程，《投資金律》將告訴你如何建立投資組合，在長期投資中成功獲利。避免分心、堅持到底，你將確立你的財務方向和目標，為你和你的家人創造長期穩定的財富，並真正享受到財富能帶給你的美好人生。 【各界讚譽】 「這本全面修訂版的投資經典收錄了美國最優秀投資顧問之一的一生絕學，你一定能從中學到許多一生難得一見的寶貴教誨。伯恩斯坦以引人入勝且幽默的寫作風格，循序漸進地告訴我們，要獲得投資上的成就，不僅牽涉到『做對的事』，還牽涉到避免犯下足以毀掉任何一個投資計畫的常見大錯。這是一本睿智卻又頗具娛樂性的書，它融合了投資理論及歷史的教誨，還有作者對人類心理偏誤的理解，是非常值得信賴的投資建議來源。」 ──伯頓‧墨基爾（Burton G. Malkiel），普林斯頓大學經濟學教授暨《漫步華爾街》（A Random Walk Down Wall Street）五十週年紀念版（二〇二三年）作者 「伯恩斯坦以實務上的例子、故事、隱喻、數學、一點點幽默，和卓越的寫作藝術，將投資的理論、歷史、心理學與產業等足夠寫成四本書的題材，融入一本書的篇幅裡。本書以易於吸收的格式，表達了許多難能可貴的投資觀點與明智建議。這本書絕對值得推薦給所有知道你真心為他們好的新手投資人。」 ──艾瑞克‧巴楚納斯（Eric Balchunas），彭博社（Bloomberg）分析師，亦為《柏格效應》（The Bogle Effect）一書作者 「談到投資，控制風險遠比追逐報酬重要。威廉‧伯恩斯坦醫師將透過本書說明，在投資這條道路上，你可能一直都搞錯方向了，你擔心的風險可能不是真正需要在意的風險。一旦你了解投資的理論、歷史、心理學和產業，就可能很有機會在承擔最低必要實質風險的情況下，成功實現你的財務目標。」 ──詹姆斯‧達利（醫學博士）（James M. Dahle, MD），白袍投資人（The White Coat Investor）網站創辦人 「威廉‧伯恩斯坦集許多罕見的天賦於一身，他既是數學家，也是歷史學家；他既是統計學家，也是心理學家；他既是計量經濟學家，也是語言藝術家。他深知哪些金融真理遭到誤解、哪些真理攸關重大，又有哪些引人入勝，而眾人殷切期待的新版《投資金律》一書，就是奠基於他的多種罕見天賦以及他對各項金融真理的深刻認識。我向來把這本書奉為我的投資策略課程的金律之一。」 ──愛德華‧陶爾（Edward Tower），杜克大學經濟學教授 「不擅長心理戰的人難以獲得投資上的成就。一頭栽進金融叢林裡追尋珍奇的獨角獸，並不能讓你成為贏家；唯有瞭解風險並控制風險的人才能獲得最後的勝利。你的目標只是要過上舒適的日子、退休後有充裕的資金可花用，或許再留點遺產給子女。這是一本彌足珍貴的著作，它詳細說明要如何用謹慎且聰明的方法來賺取資本報酬。」 ──珍‧布萊恩特‧昆恩（Jane Bryant Quinn）《財富生生不息之道》（暫譯，How to Make Your Money Last）作者 「《投資金律》一書能滿足每一個人的需要。它是所有人都該閱讀的第一本－－也是第五十本－－投資經典。能同時吸引新手及專家的投資書籍少之又少，而能讓人讀來興致盎然的投資書籍更屬鳳毛麟角。對新手來說，這是一本容易上手的入門書籍，而對已經開始在市場上見習的投資人來說，它則是一本啟示錄，即使對專家而言，這都是一本頗發人深省的好書。」 ──約翰‧瑞肯沙勒（John Rekenthaler），晨星公司（Morningstar）研究部部長

★★★《投資金律》作者威廉．伯恩斯坦最新力作★★★ ★★★《紐約書評》、《華盛頓郵報》、《泰晤士報》等各大媒體齊聲讚譽★★★ ★★★市場陷入狂熱，擦鞋童效應再現的時代，理性投資人必讀！★★★ 我們為何總是盲目追隨眾人的關注焦點，做著一夜致富的美夢？ 網路泡沫、安隆醜聞、次期房貸泡沫…… 這些眾人趨之若鶩的投資熱潮，為何總在泡沫破滅後才看出問題？ 剖析人類史上永不根絕的集體狂熱之根源！ 如果你讀過查爾斯．麥凱的鉅著《異常流行幻象與群眾瘋狂》， 那你更不能錯過威廉．伯恩斯坦的最新力作──《群眾的幻覺》。 ◎ 什麼是群眾的幻覺？ 1842年，蘇格蘭作家查爾斯．麥凱寫出了一本驚世鉅作《異常流行幻象與群眾瘋狂》， 書中廣泛的探討了金融泡沫、宗教狂熱、集體瘋狂以及對未來的妄想等主題， 堪稱是描寫人類社會群體瘋狂現象的經典之作。 然而，這本名著只是收集了眾多歷史上的集體狂熱幻象， 藉以警惕世人，卻沒能說明這種現象的根源所在。 《投資金律》作者伯恩斯坦在此基礎上，結合神經醫學與金融歷史的專業知識， 為讀者進一步解析其中的類似之處。 伯恩斯坦注意到，金融泡沫與宗教狂熱這兩種現象， 乍看之下似乎沒有什麼相關，但其實背後卻有著同樣的追求： 「改善這一輩子或來生的福利」（金融世界中的一夕致富與宗教的末世觀）。 因此，他在本書中，試圖探討這兩種現象（一夕致富與末世觀），並尋找出以下問題的解答： 為何人們會集體陷入幻覺，狂熱的相信某件事，即使眾多事證都告訴他們「這不是真的」？ ◎ 一夕致富的幻覺，為何有致命吸引力？ 你或許會說，這不是廢話嗎？人人都想發財啊！ 是的，我們都期盼能一夕致富，所以我們會去買彩券，幻想下一個頭獎得主就是自己。 然而，彩券只是小錢，頂多就是賠上飯錢罷了，幸運的話還能中個小獎， 比起彩券，更多人深陷在各種投資美夢之中， 舉例來說，許多人在股市高點時，相信還會繼續漲而遲遲不肯放手， 當股價泡沫消散後落得慘賠，這種故事想必大家都耳熟能詳。 歷史上，這樣的案例也所在多有， 而且從事後諸葛的角度來看，許多人追逐的投資標的，在泡沫爆破以前，就能看出端倪， 然而在事前，儘管有人提出警告，投資人也只會置之不理，甚至加以嘲諷怒罵。 ◎ 再聰明的人，也會沉溺在虛假的美夢中難以自拔…… 我們都認為自己聰明且有判斷力， 然而，即使再聰明的人，都可能會掉入上述的投資美夢陷阱之中。 身為專業投資人和神經醫師，伯恩斯坦發現，這種狀況其實與個人的智力無關。 即使是在科學界中地位崇高的牛頓，也曾經因這種現象而慘賠，他甚至還曾感嘆道： 「我能計算出天體的運動，卻無法計算到人們的瘋狂。」 除了投資美夢陷阱以外，還有另一種陷阱也是局外人難以理解， 但處身其中的人卻很難醒悟，那就是對宗教的過度狂熱。 可怕的是，許多邪惡宗教用信仰名義騙取各種資源， 卻總能騙到許多信徒，讓他們甘心奉獻出個人的財物，甚至是生命。 ◎ 其實，都是人性弱點惹的禍…… 伯恩斯坦發現，無論是投資美夢，還是狂熱信仰， 這兩者能廣泛吸引眾人的理由，都在於人性本能的弱點。 事實上，人類在本能上就傾向於追求那些高價值但又很稀缺的報償， 背後驅動我們的，就是我們貪婪與恐懼的本能。 我們追求快樂和美好的生活，並且對生活中一切的痛苦及不快樂感到恐懼， 為了獲得幸福、逃避痛苦，我們會不自覺的尋找最簡單輕鬆的方式。 而這正是那些有意欺騙我們的人，最容易鎖定的弱點。 弱點一：我們都喜歡聽故事 無論再怎麼不合理的陷阱，只要有個美好的故事做為包裝， 就能輕易打動人心，讓大家前仆後繼的跌入這些美好故事之中，直到不可自拔。 弱點二：我們習於自欺欺人 更可怕的是，當事情的發展不如那些騙子所說時，我們這些受騙的人， 不但無法冷靜的觀察分析現狀，甚至還會繼續自欺欺人，想盡辦法說服自己， 拚命為自己相信的事情找出證據，讓自己繼續相信這一切。 弱點三：我們習於模仿他人 我們害怕與別人不一樣。 即使我們發現自己可能受騙，但當周遭其他人還繼續相信的時候， 我們會變得難以肯定自己的意見，於是繼續隨波逐流，沉溺在虛假的謊言之中。 弱點四：我們想和別人不同 人類是矛盾的生物，我們一邊安心於「和別人一樣」， 另一方面卻又具有尋求特定身分、地位的傾向。 我們希望能變得比別人更優秀、更偉大、更幸福， 因此當自己盲信的事物，被其他人否定時，我們會說服自己： 「這都是他們不懂啦！只有我才懂，等我成功時，他們就會後悔了。」 於是，這讓我們更加不願意改變自己的想法。 ◎ 當你的大腦又想相信不切實際的陷阱時，你需要這本書！ 大腦喜歡抄捷徑。即使知道人性有這些弱點， 但當聽到各種美好願景時，我們的大腦仍然會不由自主的想要相信這套說法。 無論是在哪個時代，總會出現各種蠱惑人心的「好機會」， 讓我們情不自禁的追求這些標的， 從歷史上的密西西比泡沫、鐵路泡沫，到現代的科技泡沫，無一不是如此。 本書精選出歷史上眾多因群眾幻覺而生的災難事件， 伯恩斯坦結合神經醫學與金融歷史的專業知識， 為讀者剖析這些大規模的盲目熱潮，背後真正的成因。 無論你是追求理性思考的投資人，還是渴望一夕致富的投機客， 讀完本書，讓你不再被「本夢比」蠱惑，戒掉無腦從眾追高的投資惡習！ 本書特色 1. 徵引諸多史料文字，詳實敘述群眾如何走向瘋狂。 2. 透過譯者補充的諸多註解，讓對西方文化認識較淺的讀者也能深入理解內容。 名人推薦 「99啪的財經筆記」版主 99啪 「JC財經觀點」版主 JENNY 「Jet Lee的投資隨筆部落格」版主 Jet Lee CFA美國特許金融分析師 安納金 台灣ETF投資學院創辦人 李柏鋒 風傳媒財經主編 周岐原 美國金融日記創辦人 連振廷 專職投資人 陳喬泓 專業投資人 麥克風 價值投資者、財經作家 雷浩斯 年度暢銷書《人生路引》作者 楊斯棓醫師 《內在原力》作者、 TMBA 共同創辦人 愛瑞克 作家、旅行家、知名節目主持人 謝哲青 推薦書評 各界好評不斷！ 「『歷史不會重複，但經常會押韻。』透過作者的帶領，讀者能洞悉過去金融泡沫與瘋狂事件的歷史，也能鑑古知今，提前對未來做好準備。」──「99啪的財經筆記」版主 99啪 「投資市場受情緒牽引，而瘋狂在歷史中循環，理解過去讓你為未來預做準備。」──「JC財經觀點」版主 JENNY 「現在人們是在狂熱的錯覺還是正確的道路，總得在泡沫破滅後才能分辨。就讓威廉•伯恩斯坦引領我們從歷史中提早得到正確答案。」──「Jet Lee的投資隨筆部落格」版主 Jet Lee 「堅信會上漲的想法，終究會反映在股價上。數百年來，散戶就在這種美麗又危險的自我完成裡來來回回。」──風傳媒財經主編 周岐原 「在《群眾的幻覺》書中，讀者可以認識大量歷史上由心理信念衍生而成的泡沫事件。威廉．伯恩斯坦運用廣泛的歷史素材與紀錄，詳細描繪在每一次事件中群眾的投資心理如何逐步發展成資產泡沫，而這樣的群眾特性並沒有隨時間改變。值得一讀！」──美國金融日記創辦人 連振廷 「《投資金律》作者威廉．伯恩斯坦另一力作，本書談論有關宗教及金融因大眾狂熱所帶來的巨大代價與影響，透過本書我們認識到人類的天性傾向容易受到各種各樣群眾瘋狂所害，並學會避開未來可能出現的幻影陷阱。」──專職投資人 陳喬泓 「旁徵博引，深入探究了宗教狂熱和金融泡沫的根源：人性。」──專業投資人 麥克風 「如果您不希望自己成為群眾集體瘋狂或愚蠢下的犧牲者，或要為自己短期從眾行為之後，面對殘局的內心自我撻伐，那麼此書就是一本極佳的教戰手冊。」──《內在原力》作者、 TMBA 共同創辦人 愛瑞克 知名書評網站「文學中心」（Literary Hub）將此書選為「最受期待的書」！ 「伯恩斯坦是一位訓練有素的神經科醫師，也是幾本投資書籍的作者，特別適合更新麥凱的任務，本書是對《異常流行幻象與群眾瘋狂》有價值的補充。」 ——愛德華．凱恩斯勒，《紐約書評》 「伯恩斯坦希望我們明白，人類遠沒有我們希望的那麼聰明或理性。人們很少真正對任何事情進行分析。我們不斷的編造，然後聲稱我們編造的內容是真實的。……但我們不需要民意調查來證實麥凱和伯恩斯坦的結論，即人們傾向於相信他們想相信的東西，無論確鑿的事實和冷酷的理由是否支持他們的觀點。例如，我們知道，在11月3日，超過7400萬美國人投票選出了一位被眾多嚴肅歷史學家認定為美國歷史上最糟糕總統的人。……伯恩斯坦解釋說：『當引人入勝的敘述（例如，讓美國再次偉大）與客觀事實發生衝突時，前者往往會倖存下來，這是自古以來就詛咒人類的結果。』」——羅伯特．G．凱澤，《華盛頓郵報》 「迷人的。……伯恩斯坦是一位有趣的編年史家和這些人類缺陷的分析家。」——大衛．阿羅諾維奇，《泰晤士報》 「麥凱1841年的作品，已被投資作家威廉．伯恩斯坦為21世紀進行了出色的更新。」──《路透社》 「查爾斯．麥凱的經典著作《異常流行幻象與群眾瘋狂》的有趣現代更新。……讀者會對伴隨著宗教改革的經常血腥的歇斯底里感到畏縮，對我們無法抗拒快速致富的計畫感到厭煩不耐，對等待1843年世界末日的廣泛美國運動嗤之以鼻——所有這些內容都使得閱讀變得令人不安又引人入勝。……本書針對「人們為什麼做蠢事」這一類型的探討，進行了經過充分研究、範圍廣泛且令人沮喪的補充。」──《柯克斯評論》 「伯恩斯坦的書是對金融和宗教狂熱的調查，其靈感來自查爾斯．麥凱的作品《異常流行幻象與群眾瘋狂》。麥凱認為人群動態是南海泡沫、十字軍東征、獵巫和煉金術等不同現象的核心。伯恩斯坦利用進化心理學和神經科學的教訓來闡明麥凱的一些觀察結果，並認為我們集體發瘋的傾向，部分是由人類天生對故事的弱點決定的。『人類通過敘事來理解世界，』他寫道，『無論我們對自己的個人理性多麼引以為傲，一個好故事，無論多麼缺乏分析，都會在腦海中縈繞，在情感上產生共鳴，並且比最有決定性的事實或數據更能說服自己。』」──《紐約客》

William J. Bernstein ist in Fachkreisen längst als Guru der Investmentwelt bekannt. Er betreibt eine der weltweit erfolgreichsten Investment-Websites. In diesem Buch erklärt er wie man sicher, einfach und ohne großen Zeitaufwand sein Portfolio zusammenstellen kann. Dabei beruft er sich auf Techniken, mit denen seit Jahrzehnten erfolgreich Investiert wird. Mit nur 30 Minuten Zeitaufwand im Jahr kann damit jeder ein Portfolio zusammenstellen, das 75 Prozent aller professionell gemanagten Aktienkörbe hinter sich lässt.

Covers navigating the global investment landscape and provides a way of thinking about diversification.

Quali sono le principali categorie di beni su cui possiamo investire? Qual è stato il loro rendimento storico e quale rendimento ci possiamo ragionevolmente attendere dai titoli di stato piuttosto che dalle azioni o dalle commodity? Noi tutti possiamo facilmente trovare informazioni sui risultati ottenuti da questo o quel prodotto negli anni recenti, ma quanti di noi hanno un’idea di ciò che è ragionevole ricavare investendo oggi ad esempio in titoli azionari? Nel discutere questo e altri temi, il libro fornisce efficaci modalità di comprensione dei mercati finanziari e dei vari strumenti che consentono al lettore di orientarsi tra le varie scelte possibili. Bernstein usa scenari storici come test di tolleranza al rischio, simula situazioni di individui alle prese con diverse evoluzioni di mercato in differenti momenti della loro vita, fa leva sui risultati raggiunti in diverse discipline per mettere in luce i condizionamenti mentali cui possiamo andare incontro nelle nostre valutazioni. Particolare attenzione è data alla pianificazione degli investimenti a fini previdenziali. Una necessità per le giovani generazioni ma anche per coloro che hanno avviato da alcuni anni la loro carriera lavorativa e che si trovano nell’esigenza di valutare come integrare la pensione che un giorno potranno ricevere.

Kurz nach den zwanziger Jahren des 19. Jahrhunderts begann der Wohlstand Fahrt aufzunehmen in einem bisher nicht da gewesenen Tempo. Mit jeder Generation wurde das Leben komfortabler, angenehmer und vorhersagbarer. Die Menge der Informationen wuchs exponentiell. Doch was war in den Jahrhunderten davor, inden vielen hundert Jahren zurück bis Christi Geburt. Warum blieb der größte Teil der Menschheit auf einem Niveau stehen, warum gab es solch eine langsame und ineffiziente Entwicklung? Und was war im 19. Jahrhundert anders, als die industrielle Revolution und unser heutiger Wohlstand geboren wurde. Bernstein gibt erstaunliche Antworten auf diese Fragen, noch nie war Wirtschaftsgeschichte so spannend. Dieses Buch öffnet einem die Augen und man lernt, die Vergangenheit und unsere heutige Zeit besser zu verstehen.

"The Ages of the Investor: A Critical Look at Life-cycle Investing" is intended to be the first installment in the "Investing for Adults" series. Just as grown-ups do not believe in the Tooth Fairy, the Easter Bunny, or Santa Claus, "Investing adults" know that there is no such creature as the Stock-picking Fairy or the Market-timing Fairy. Further, there is no Risk Fairy who will write you cheap options that will protect your stock holdings against loss. Investing adults are familiar with Gene Fama, Zvi Bodie, Jack Bogle, and Burton Malkiel, and understand that a mean variance optimizer does not blend vegetables. In other words, this series is not for beginners. Future topics will, with luck, include the limits of market efficiency and diversification in increasingly non-segmented global markets.

Цитата Заметных успехов в управлении своими денежными средствами добиваются лишь немногие. Уильям Бернстайн О чем книга Манифест инвестора Готовимся к потрясениям, процветанию и всему остальному Об основах инвестирования и планирования портфеля. Главное, что пытается донести автор до читателей, заключается в рекомендации никогда не забывать о том, что обвалы рынка случаются. Именно поэтому важно выстраивать долгосрочную (да что там греха таить - и краткосрочную) стратегию таким образом, чтобы они не стали неожиданностью. Почему книга Манифест инвестора достойна прочтения - Понятный толковый язык, который не нужно переводить с финансового на более доступный для восприятия. - Нет голословных наставлений из области искусства инвестирования лишь советы, как заранее уменьшить вероятный ущерб. - Инвестирование - игра и борьба одновременно, как их совмещать? - Чем опаснее финансовая ситуация, тем больше доходов она сулит правила поведения инвесторов в кризисных ситуациях. Для кого эта книга Будет интересна как профессиональным инвесторам, так и широкому кругу читателей, задумывающихся хотя бы о пенсионных сбережениях.

The unique characteristics of the financial services industry present practitioners with challenging ethical demands. Of these, the potential for extraordinary monetary gain and the moral anesthesia resulting from the inward-looking nature of the profession conspire to hamstring effective regulation by industry insiders. Effective control of the industry must come from outside the industry. The choice is between regulation by a private entity and regulation by a governmental body.

The effective (geometric mean) return of a periodically rebalanced portfolio always exceeds the weighted sum of the component geometric means. Some approximate formulae for estimating this effective return are derived and tested. One special case of these formulae is shown to be particularly simple, and is used to provide easily computed estimates of the benefits of diversification and rebalancing. The results are also used to show how classical Mean-Variance Optimization may be modified to generate the Geometric Mean Frontier, the analog of the efficient frontier when the geometric mean is used as the measure of portfolio return.

Two important concepts played a key role in the bull market of the 1990s. Both represent fundamental flaws in logic. Both are demonstrably untrue. First, many investors believed that earnings could grow faster than the macroeconomy. In fact, earnings must grow slower than GDP because the growth of existing enterprises contributes only part of GDP growth; the role of entrepreneurial capitalism, the creation of new enterprises, is a key driver of GDP growth, and it does not contribute to the growth in earnings and dividends of existing enterprises. During the 20th century, growth in stock prices and dividends was 2 percent less than underlying macroeconomic growth. Second, many investors believed that stock buybacks would permit earnings to grow faster than GDP. The important metric is not the volume of buybacks, however, but net buybacks - stock buybacks less new share issuance, whether in existing enterprises or through IPOs. We demonstrate, using two methodologies, that during the 20th century, new share issuance in many nations almost always exceeded stock buybacks by an average of 2 percent or more a year.