New Releases by Sean Duffy

This was written to feel like the classic fairytales we all loved as kids, but in a way kids can relate to today. The first short story transports you to a world larger than life. It''s full of sweet treats and adventure that any child''s imagination can dive into. This is a 32 page picture book full of bright colors to keep kids interested.

Noise is a pervasive feature of economic choice. However, standard economics experiments are not well equipped to study the noise because experiments are constrained: preferences are either unknown or only imperfectly measured by experimenters. As a result of these designs--where the optimal choice is not observable to the analyst -- many important questions about the noise in apparently random choice cannot be addressed. We design an experiment to better understand stochastic choice by directing subjects to make incentivized binary choices between lines. Subjects are paid a function of the length of the selected line, so subjects will attempt to select the longer of the lines. We find a gradual (not sudden) relationship between the difference in the lengths of the lines and the optimal choice. Our analysis suggests that the errors are better described as having a Gumbel distribution rather than a normal distribution, and our simulated data increase our confidence in this inference. We find evidence that sub-optimal choices are associated with longer response times than optimal choices, which appears to be consistent with the predictions of Fudenberg, Strack, and Strzalecki (2018). Although we note that the relationship between response time and the optimality of choice becomes weaker across trials. In our experiment, 54 of 56 triples are consistent with Strong Stochastic Transitivity and this is the median outcome in our simulated data. Finally, we find a relationship between choice and attention, although we find strong evidence that the relationship is endogenous.

A #1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER! Pull up a chair, pour some eggnog, and enjoy the Christmas spirit with friends… From the wind-swept, snowy ranges of Wyoming to Florida beaches glowing with Christmas lights, All American Christmas traces holiday traditions across the United States. In this beautiful personal keepsake, Rachel Campos-Duffy and Sean Duffy present a dazzling collection of emotional stories, treasured family photographs, and homegrown Christmas recipes from some of Fox News’ most beloved personalities. Dana Perino takes readers out west to the cattle ranch where she celebrated Christmas with real life “Marlboro Men”—her uncles and grandfather. Maria Bartiromo reflects on growing up in Brooklyn and the famously brilliant light displays in her neighborhood. Brit Hume looks back at the day he and a friend rushed onto the Washington Senators’ field—and how his parents later warned him that he was now on Santa Claus’ naughty list. For Lauren Green, her understanding of Christmas has evolved with her growing faith. Beautifully designed to reflect the color and spirit and sparkle of the season and featuring 16 pages of color photographs, All American Christmas is a gift of love from the Fox News family and is sure to be cherished for seasons to come.

In theory, the Internet allows all brands to market internationally. But in practice, most companies struggle to compete outside their home market. Written from a marketing practitioner''s perspective, International Brand Strategy evens the playing field with clear, actionable techniques to guide any organization going through the process. This book helps companies build sales in foreign markets, but just as important it helps them thrive by maintaining price integrity and building brand equity at the same time. With the guidance provided in International Brand Strategy companies hit the ground running in foreign markets. This provides a competitive advantage from day one, empowers companies to avoid costly mistakes, and saves months of trial and error. The book lays out a unique methodology for managing brands abroad that can be implemented for any product in any market. These methods have proven their value for companies large and small across six continents. The book guides readers with pragmatic models and a wealth of examples from global companies such as Target Canada, Unilever and Apple. International Brand Strategy was written for those who are planning to enter a new market and for those who are already there but wish to improve their brand''s performance. It helps the reader recognize some of the most common pitfalls and how to avoid them, provides practical tips to understand the dynamics of price, product and value from a foreign buyer''s perspective, and defines a conceptual framework to assess and improve brand equity at home and abroad.

The datasets from Duffy, Huttenlocher, Hedges, and Crawford (2010) [Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 17(2), 224-230] were reanalyzed by Duffy and Smith (2018) [Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25(5), 1740-1750]. Duffy and Smith (2018) conclude that the datasets are not consistent with the category adjustment model (CAM). Crawford (2019) [Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 26(2), 693-698] offered a reply to Duffy and Smith (2018) that is based on three main points. Crawford proposes regressions that are, in part, based on a “deviation” analysis. Crawford offers a different simulation of data and claims that the techniques employed by Duffy and Smith (2018) are not sufficiently sensitive to detect a specific relationship that is claimed to be consistent with CAM. Crawford also appeals to a figure showing that the responses appear to be biased toward the overall running mean, and presumably not toward recently viewed lines. We show that Crawford''s analysis suffers from an omitted-variable bias. Once this bias is corrected, the evidence in support of CAM disappears. When we produce a simulated dataset that is consistent with the specification suggested by Crawford, the techniques of Duffy and Smith (2018) correctly detect the true relationship. Despite the assertion otherwise, the simulated dataset that was analyzed by Crawford is not publicly available. Since the analysis of Crawford (2019) is incorrect, it remains our view that the datasets from Duffy, Huttenlocher, Hedges, and Crawford (2010) do not appear to be consistent with CAM or any Bayesian model of judgment.

Duffy, Huttenlocher, Hedges, and Crawford (2010) [Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 17(2), 224-230] report on experiments where participants estimate the lengths of lines. These studies were designed to test the Category Adjustment Model (CAM), a Bayesian model of judgments. CAM predicts that there will exist a bias toward the running mean of the lines and that judgments will not be differentially affected by recent stimuli. The authors report that their analysis provides evidence consistent with CAM. We reexamine their data. First, we attempt to replicate their analysis and we obtain different results. Second, we conduct a different statistical analysis. We find significant recency effects and we identify several specifications where the running mean is not significantly related to judgment. Third, we conduct a test of an auxiliary prediction of CAM: that the bias towards the mean will increase with exposure to the distribution. We do not find such a relationship. Fourth, we produce a simulated dataset that is consistent with CAM and our methods correctly identify it as consistent with CAM. We conclude that the Duffy et al. (2010) dataset is not consistent with CAM. We also discuss how conventions in psychology do not sufficiently reduce the likelihood of these mistakes in future research. We hope that the methods that we employ will be used to evaluate other datasets.

We study the relationship between the cognitive load manipulation and strategic sophistication. The cognitive load manipulation is designed to reduce the subject''s cognitive resources that are available for deliberation on a choice. In our experiment, subjects are placed under a large cognitive load (given a difficult number to remember) or a low cognitive load (given a number which is not difficult to remember). Subsequently, the subjects play a one-shot game then they are asked to recall the number. This procedure is repeated for various games, where a new number is given for each game. We find a nuanced and nonmonotonic relationship between cognitive load and strategic sophistication. This relationship is consistent with two effects. First, subjects under a high cognitive load tend to exhibit behavior consistent with the reduced ability to compute the optimal decision. Second, the cognitive load tends to affect the subject''s perception of their relative standing in the distribution of the available cognitive resources. The net result of these two effects depends on the strategic setting. Our experiment provides evidence on the literature which examines the relationship between measures of cognitive ability and strategic sophistication.

We find that differences in the ability to devote cognitive resources to a strategic interaction imply differences in strategic behavior. In our experiment, we manipulate the availability of cognitive resources by applying a differential cognitive load. In cognitive load experiments, subjects are directed to perform a task which occupies cognitive resources, in addition to making a choice in another domain. The greater the cognitive resources required for the task implies that fewer such resources will be available for deliberation on the choice. Although much is known about how subjects make decisions under a cognitive load, there are only a few studies of cognitive load in strategic games. We run an experiment in which subjects play a repeated multi-player prisoner''s dilemma game under two cognitive load treatments. In one treatment, subjects are placed under a high cognitive load (given a 7 digit number to recall) and subjects in the other are placed under a low cognitive load (given a 2 digit number). According to two different measures, we find evidence that the low load subjects behave more strategically. First, the low load subjects exhibit more strategic defection near the end of play than the high load subjects. Second, we find evidence that low load subjects are better able to condition their behavior on the outcomes of previous periods.

Brian Boru is the most famous Irish person before the modern era, whose death at the Battle of Clontarf in 1014 is one of the few events in the whole of Ireland''s medieval history to retain a place in the popular imagination. Once, we were told that Brian, the great Christian king, gave his life in a battle on Good Friday against pagan Viking enemies whose defeat banished them from Ireland forever. More recent interpretations of the Battle of Clontarf have played down the role of the Vikings and portrayed it as merely the final act in a rebellion against Brian, the king of Munster, by his enemies in Leinster and Dublin. This book proposes a far-reaching reassessment of Brian Boru and Clontarf. By examining Brian''s family history and tracing his career from its earliest days, it uncovers the origins of Brian''s greatness and explains precisely how he changed Irish political life forever. Brian Boru and the Battle of Clontarf offers a new interpretation of the role of the Vikings in Irish affairs and explains how Brian emerged from obscurity to attain the high-kingship of Ireland because of his exploitation of the Viking presence. And it concludes that Clontarf was deemed a triumph, despite Brian''s death, because of what he averted – a major new Viking offensive in Ireland – on that fateful day.

"Predator-prey interactions occurring between competitors that share a resource is a food web configuration known as intraguild predation (IGP). Theory dictates that IGP in its most basic configuration is often unstable, with strict criteria for coexistence of intraguild predator and intraguild prey. However, IGP is quite frequent in nature. The main objective of my thesis was to show how modifications to IGP interactions can promote the persistence of this food web configuration. First, I theoretically analysed how prey switching by the intraguild predator affected coexistence. I then focused on IGP in a mussel aquaculture system and empirically tested for factors modifying IGP pressures exerted by mussels on zooplankton intraguild prey. My IGP model with prey switching yielded coexistence over a greater range of parameters compared to the basic IGP model. In the mussel aquaculture system, age/stage structures and ontogenetic niche shifts were identified as factors that alter IGP interactions and potentially prevent the zooplankton intraguild prey from being excluded. This research adds to the literature on IGP interactions and provides insight on mechanisms that allow these food webs to persist." --

Language is an imperfect and coarse means of communicating information about a complex and nuanced world. We report on an experiment designed to capture this feature of communication. The messages available to the sender imperfectly describe the state of the world, however the sender can improve communication, at a cost, by increasing the complexity or elaborateness of the message. Here the sender learns the state of the world then sends a message to the receiver. The receiver observes the message and provides a best guess about the state. The incentives of the players are aligned in the sense that both sender and receiver are paid an amount which is increasing in the accuracy of the receiver''s guess. We find that the size of the language endogenously emerges as a function of the costs of communication. Specifically, we find that higher communication costs are associated a smaller language. Although the equilibrium predictions do not perform well, this divergence occurs in a manner which is consistent with the experimental communication literature: overcommunication. We find that the sender''s payoffs relative to equilibrium payoffs are decreasing in the cost of communication. We also find that the receiver''s payoffs relative to equilibrium payoffs are increasing in the cost of communication. Finally, we find imperfections in coordination on the basis of the experimental labels.