New Releases by Olivier Sibony

Quando esprimiamo un giudizio o facciamo una scelta, si tratti di un acquisto, di un investimento o di come riuscire a risparmiare, non siamo sempre “razionali”. Le trappole in cui cadiamo, come hanno dimostrato decenni di ricerche condotte dagli psicologi cognitivi, sono i bias, i pregiudizi, che qui vengono smascherati e descritti l’uno dopo l’altro, dall’eccesso di fiducia (in cui si attribuisce un peso eccessivo a una propria convinzione), al bias di conferma (in cui si propende per la decisione che avvalora quanto pensavamo senza considerare le possibili alternative), alla trappola dello status quo (in cui si predilige una decisione che non smuova le acque). L’analisi di Sibony risulterà preziosa per tutti noi che dobbiamo effettuare scelte, ma lo sarà ancora di più per amministratori delegati e alti dirigenti che ne saranno sorpresi, spiazzati e anche divertiti, e magari ci si riconosceranno un po’. Brillante, pieno di storie vivide e di grandi lezioni, questo libro è una piacevolissima guida a un processo decisionale assennato, nel business e nella vita quotidiana.

Bayangkan dua dokter di kota yang sama memberi diagnosis yang berbeda bagi pasien yang identik—atau dua hakim memberi hukuman yang berbeda ke orang yang melakukan kejahatan yang sama. Sekarang bayangkan dokter yang sama atau hakim yang sama membuat keputusan yang berbeda, tergantung dia membuatnya pada hari Senin atau Rabu, sebelum atau sesudah makan siang. Itulah contoh-contoh noise (kegaduhan): keragaman di pertimbangan yang seharusnya identik. Di buku ini, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, dan Cass R. Sunstein menunjukkan bagaimana kegaduhan menghasilkan kesalahan di banyak bidang, termasuk kedokteran, hukum, kesehatan masyarakat, prakiraan ekonomi, ilmu forensik, perlindungan anak, strategi kreatif, tinjauan kinerja, dan penerimaan pelamar kerja. Kita semua membuat lebih banyak pertimbangan buruk daripada yang kita duga. Penuh gagasan baru dan menggunakan pendekatan yang membuat Thinking, Fast and Slow serta Nudge menjadi buku-buku yang dibaca banyak orang, Noise menunjukkan batas-batas kita dalam membuat keputusan, dan menawarkan jalan praktis untuk memperbaiki cara kita berpikir.

Mit tanulhatunk vezetőként a NASA űrhajósaitól az együttműködésről? Odüsszeuszra vagy John Wayne-re tekintsünk inkább példaképként? Milyen tanulságokkal szolgál Paul, a jóspolip a döntéshozatalra nézve? Legyen szó a megtakarításainkról vagy éppen egy milliárdos üzletről, döntéshelyzetekben mindannyian könnyen hibázunk. Méghozzá nem is akárhogyan: szisztematikus, kiszámítható hibákat követünk el. A kognitív torzítások, más néven gondolkodási vagy logikai hibák még akkor is tévútra vihetnek, ha tisztában vagyunk a létezésükkel és a veszélyeikkel. Olivier Sibony stratégiaoktató és vezetői tanácsadó könyve a viselkedéstudomány és a kognitív pszichológia legújabb eredményein alapul. A lebilincselő esettanulmányokon keresztül olyan módszerek és folyamatok rendszerét ismerhetjük meg, amelyek a kollektív intelligenciát kiaknázva segítenek a legjobb döntések meghozatalában az üzleti és a magánéletben egyaránt.

PARA ENTENDER CÓMO PENSAMOS Y PENSAR MEJOR, HAY QUE LEER A KAHNEMAN. —Premio Nobel de Economía Dos médicos en la misma ciudad pueden dar diagnósticos diferentes a pacientes idénticos; dos jueces pueden dictar sentencias distintas ante delitos similares; nosotros mismos podemos decidir una cosa u otra según sea por la mañana o por la tarde, o según se acerque o no la hora de comer. Estos son ejemplos de ruido: el sesgo que conlleva variabilidad en juicios que deberían ser iguales. El ruido está presente en todas las decisiones individuales y colectivas, y produce errores en innumerables terrenos, desde la medicina hasta la economía, pasando por el derecho, la sanidad, la protección infantil y la contratación. Además, también nos importuna e influye a la hora de tomar muchas de nuestras decisiones cotidianas. Daniel Kahneman, uno de los psicólogos más importantes del mundo, junto con Cass R. Sunstein y Olivier Sibony, dos eminencias mundiales en pensamiento estratégico, nos enseñan a escuchar ese ruido, cuyo impacto tendemos a ignorar, y a reducirlo para mejorar nuestros juicios. Basado en el mismo tipo de análisis agudo e ingeniosos ejemplos que convirtió Pensar rápido, pensar despacio en un best seller internacional, Ruido ofrece una serie de remedios originales, prácticos y sencillos para pensar mejor. ENGLISH DESCRIPTION From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones--"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.

Escrito pelos maiores especialistas do mundo em pensamento estratégico e autores dos best-sellers Rápido e devagar e Nudge, este livro vai mudar sua maneira de pensar e tomar decisões. Imagine que dois médicos na mesma cidade façam diagnósticos distintos a pacientes com o mesmo problema ou que dois juízes no mesmo tribunal deem sentenças diferentes a pessoas que cometeram o mesmo crime. Agora, suponha que este mesmo médico e este mesmo juiz tomem decisões diversas dependendo se é manhã ou tarde, segunda-feira ou quarta-feira, antes ou depois do almoço. Estes são exemplos de ruído: variabilidade em julgamentos que deveriam ser idênticos. Neste livro, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony e Cass R. Sunstein mostram que o ruído tem efeitos prejudiciais em muitos campos, incluindo medicina, direito, saúde pública, previsão econômica, ciência forense, proteção à criança, avaliações de desempenho e seleção de pessoal. No entanto, indivíduos e organizações frequentemente ignoram seu impacto, a um grande custo. Baseado em extensa pesquisa e repleto de ideias originais, este livro explica como e por que os seres humanos são tão suscetíveis ao ruído e aos vieses ao fazer escolhas. Revela também que, com algumas soluções simples, podemos reduzir ambos e, assim, tomar decisões muito melhores. "Prepare-se para algumas das maiores mentes do mundo ajudarem você a avaliar pessoas, tomar decisões e resolver problemas." — Adam Grant "A maior fonte de políticas ineficazes muitas vezes não são vieses, corrupção ou má vontade, mas três ''is'': intuição, ignorância e inércia. Este livro demonstra de forma magistral por que eles são tão presentes e o que podemos fazer para combatê-los. Uma leitura essencial e esclarecedora." — Esther Duflo "Um tour de force de erudição e texto acessível." — The New York Times "Bem-pesquisado, convincente e prático. Todos os acadêmicos, formuladores de políticas públicas e líderes deveriam ler este livro. Pessoas com o poder e a persistência necessários para aplicar as ideias deste livro tomarão decisões mais humanas e justas, salvarão vidas e evitarão que tempo, dinheiro e talento sejam desperdiçados." — The Washington Post

Il nuovo libro di Daniel Kahneman, autore di Pensieri lenti e veloci Dove c''è una decisione, un giudizio, una previsione, lì si trova il rumore. Due medici che danno due diagnosi diverse allo stesso paziente sulla base degli stessi esami. O due giudici che assegnano pene diverse a colpevoli dello stesso reato. O, addirittura, lo stesso manager che prende una decisione diversa a seconda del momento della giornata. Non dovrebbe accadere, ma accade. A tutti è capitato di trovarsi in situazioni in cui la realtà è ben diversa dalla teoria e decisioni che dovrebbero essere guidate da criteri oggettivi sembrano, invece, casuali. E la colpa è del rumore. Daniel Kahneman, premio Nobel per l''Economia e autore del bestseller mondiale Pensieri lenti e veloci, ha studiato per anni con Olivier Sibony e Cass R. Sunstein questo difetto del funzionamento mentale e in questo libro dimostra come ovunque si eserciti il giudizio umano - nella sanità pubblica come nelle aule di giustizia, nelle strategie aziendali come nelle decisioni quotidiane di tutti noi - lì si trovi il rumore, a sviare il ragionamento e causare errori. Una ricerca accurata, un libro ricchissimo di idee che svela un fenomeno onnipresente ma finora largamente ignorato e consente ai suoi lettori di riconoscere e controllare l''influenza che il rumore esercita su tutte le loro decisioni, previsioni e valutazioni. «Una ricerca rivoluzionaria su come migliorare i nostri ragionamenti.» - The New York Times «Una lettura obbligatoria per chiunque si trovi a prendere decisioni.» - Die Zeit «Un libro che apre gli occhi e indica una nuova via.» - Esther Duflo, premio Nobel per l''Economia 2019 «Rumore è il libro del decennio. Un capolavoro.» - Angela Duckworth, autrice di Grinta. Il potere della passione e della perseveranza «Un libro importante e dotto.» - Michela Marzano, Robinson - la Repubblica

Olivier Sibony se baseia em estudos de caso fascinantes para mostrar o que leva cada um de nós — inclusive os empresários mais renomados — a cair nas nove armadilhas comuns na hora de tomar uma decisão. Em vez de discutir velhas técnicas, Sibony fornece métodos concretos para ajudar líderes e gestores a fazerem as melhores escolhas possíveis. "Uma introdução magistral à tomada de decisão estratégica. É surpreendente e muito prazeroso de ler." — Daniel Kahneman, prêmio Nobel de economia e autor de Rápido e devagar Nem sempre tomamos decisões em nosso próprio benefício. Na vida pessoal, muitas vezes adotamos hábitos que fazem mal à saúde, compramos produtos de que não precisamos só porque estão em promoção e economizamos menos do que deveríamos. Nas empresas não é diferente: péssimas escolhas são feitas todos os dias — surpreendentemente, na maioria das vezes por pessoas muito capacitadas —, e suas consequências podem ser irreversíveis. Por que isso acontece com tanta frequência? Com base nas ciências cognitivas e na psicologia do julgamento e da tomada de decisão, Olivier Sibony identifica os chamados vieses cognitivos, armadilhas que nos levam a escolhas "irracionais". Segundo Sibony, "embora estejamos de forma individual à mercê dos nossos vieses, podemos observar e corrigir os dos outros. Inversamente, nossos familiares, amigos e colegas têm consciência de nossos vieses. Para tomar decisões melhores, devemos nos amparar neles, encontrar uma maneira de aproveitar a força do coletivo". Depois de inúmeras conversas com empresários, investidores e diretores, e de observá-los tomando decisões estratégicas, Sibony revela ferramentas fundamentais para o líder que almeja vantagens competitivas e uma equipe motivada. Você está prestes a cometer um erro terrível apresenta a metodologia indispensável para você aprender, ou reaprender, a fazer boas escolhas. "Brilhante, engraçado e inteligente — o guia perfeito para uma tomada de decisão sensata, nos negócios e na vida." — Cass R. Sunstein, coautor de Nudge "Uma síntese elegante do melhor trabalho científico sobre psicologia do julgamento." — Philip E. Tetlock, autor de Superprevisões

★博客來、誠品一致選書推薦 ★與英美同步出版 諾貝爾獎得主、《快思慢想》作者 康納曼 醞釀十年 探測人類決策的最大黑洞 社會充斥很多不合理的情況， 像是不同法官對同一個案件卻有截然不同的判決、 不同醫師對同一個病人的診斷有很大的差異、 不同面試官對於是否錄取求職者意見大不相同， 甚至就連同一個法官、醫師與面試官在不同的時間也會做出不同的判斷。 為什麼會這樣？ 因為，只要有判斷，就會有「雜訊」 而且在日常生活中，雜訊比你以為的還要多 丹尼爾．康納曼、奧利維．席波尼、凱斯．桑思汀三位行為科學家發現， 在醫學、法律、經濟預測、法醫鑑識、保釋、 兒童保護、策略、績效評估、個人選擇等領域，都看得到雜訊， 但是一般人和組織都沒有意識到這個問題， 結果是付出高昂的代價、公共安全與衛生受到影響、社會還會出現極端不公平的情況。 本書中，作者從各領域的實例中拆解雜訊出現的原因， 並提供幾項決策保健策略，幫助讀者預防決策雜訊。 雜訊與偏誤一樣，都是人類必須迫切正視的問題 唯有正視雜訊與偏誤的存在，並做好決策保健工作 才能迎向決策錯誤更少、更公平、更健康的社會 【作者簡介】 丹尼爾．康納曼 Daniel Kahneman 全球暢銷書《快思慢想》的作者、2002年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、 2013年獲頒美國總統自由勳章。 他是普林斯頓大學尤金．希金斯心理學講座教授， 伍德羅威爾森學院公共事務教授，曾榮獲多項獎章， 包括美國心理學學會頒贈的心理學終身貢獻獎。 他在心理學上的成就是挑戰判斷與決策的理性模式， 被公認為「繼佛洛依德之後，當代最偉大的心理學家」。 他的跨領域研究對經濟學、醫學、政治、 社會學、社會心理學、認知科學皆具深遠的影響， 被譽為「行為經濟學之父」。 奧利維．席波尼 Olivier Sibony 教授、作家和企業顧問，專門研究策略思維與決策流程的設計。 他在巴黎高等商學院（HEC Paris）教導策略、決策與問題解決課程， 並擔任牛津大學賽德商學院（Saïd Business School）副研究員。 此外，他長期在麥肯錫公司（McKinsey＆Company）巴黎、 紐約辦事處擔任顧問與合夥人，也在歐洲許多機構任職， 以顧問或董事會成員的身份為商業領袖提供諮詢。 著有《不當決策》（You’re About to Make a Terrible Mistake!）。 席波尼的研究專注在藉由減少偏誤的影響來增進決策品質。 他也是許多學術及一般出版品的作者， 與諾貝爾經濟學獎得主康納曼合著新書《Noise》。 凱斯．桑思汀 Cass R. Sunstein 美國被引用次數最多的法律學者， 過去十五年來率先將行為經濟學運用在各種議題的探討。 《紐約時報》暢銷書《原力思辨》（The World According to Star Wars）和 《推出你的影響力》（Nudge，與理查．塞勒合著）等書作者。 他是哈佛大學法學院教授，也是行為經濟學和公共政策計畫的發起人和負責人。 2009至2012年擔任白宮資訊法規辦公室主任。 2013至2014年擔任歐巴馬總統的情報和通訊科技審查小組委員。 【譯者簡介】 廖月娟 美國西雅圖華盛頓大學比較文學碩士。 曾獲誠品好讀報告2006年度最佳翻譯人、 2007年金鼎獎最佳翻譯人獎、 2008年吳大猷科普翻譯銀籤獎。 譯作繁多，包括《賈伯斯傳》、 《你要如何衡量你的人生？》、《旁觀者》、 《謝謝你遲到了》等數十冊。 周宜芳 讀過幾年書，識得一些字，現為自由譯者、全職媽媽， 分身於書房與廚房，在創造裡領受無窮樂趣。

Der vil altid være støj, der gør det svært for enhver at foretage vurderinger og træffe beslutninger. Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony og Cass R. Sunstein viser i denne bog, hvordan støj er årsagen til, at der begås fejl inden for alle områder - herunder lægevidenskab, jura, sundhed, patenter, økonomi, retsmedicin, strategi og ansættelsesprocesser. Selvom støj findes overalt, hvor der træffes beslutninger, ignorerer både enkeltpersoner og organisationer dens betydning - ofte med store omkostninger til følge. Med enkle midler udforsker denne banebrydende bog, hvad vi kan gøre for at træffe bedre beslutninger. Forestil dig to læger, der stiller forskellige diagnoser til patienter med samme sygdom. Eller to dommere ved samme domstol, der giver forskellige domme til mennesker, der har begået identiske forbrydelser. Forestil dig, at beslutningerne afhænger af, om det er morgen eller eftermiddag, om det er mandag eller onsdag, eller om det er lige før eller efter frokost. Det er eksempler på støj: variationer i beslutninger, der burde være identiske.

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.

''Een monumentaal en boeiend boek.'' The Times Overal waar mensen beslissingen nemen, is sprake van ruis: verschil in oordelen die identiek zouden moeten zijn. Artsen stellen verschillende diagnoses bij dezelfde patiënt, rechters geven verschillende straffen voor hetzelfde delict, twee collega''s beoordelen vergelijkbare sollicitanten verschillend. Iemand neemt ''s ochtends andere beslissingen dan ''s middags. Zulke voorbeelden van ruis zijn overal te vinden, maar mensen en organisaties zijn zich gewoonlijk niet bewust van de rol van ruis bij hun beoordelingen en hun handelen. Met een aanstekelijk enthousiasme bespreken Nobelprijswinnaar Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony en Cass Sunstein op basis van de nieuwste bevindingen in de psychologie en gedragseconomie hoe en waarom wij zo vatbaar zijn voor ruis bij het nemen van beslissingen, en wat we eraan kunnen doen. Een baanbrekend boek dat onze denkwijze zal veranderen, van de experts in strategisch denken en auteurs van de megabestsellers Thinking, Fast and Slow (Ons feilbare denken) en Nudge ''Een hoogstandje van wetenschap en helderheid.'' The New York Times ''Een goed onderzocht, overtuigend en praktisch boek (...) geschreven door een sterrenteam. Iedere wetenschapper, beleidsmaker, leidinggevende en consultant zou dit boek moeten lezen. Wie de invloed en het doorzettingsvermogen heeft die nodig zijn om de inzichten uit RUIS toe te passen, zal beslissingen nemen die menselijker en eerlijker zijn, levens redden, en voorkomen dat tijd, geld en talent verspild worden.'' The Washington Post ''Ruis is een briljant onderzoek naar een ongelooflijk groot maatschappelijk probleem waar iedereen tot nu toe overheen keek.'' Steven Levitt, auteur van Freakonomics ''Overtuigend. Een nederig stemmende les over onnauwkeurigheid.'' Financial Times

9種造成錯誤決斷的思考陷阱 40道高勝算的決策技巧 讓你戰勝人性弱點，鍛造贏家策略思維 ★第一本將行為經濟學應用在管理決策的重量級作品 ★高階經理人、職場工作者、創業家、政策制定者、創意思考人必讀 ★投資、開拓市場、制定政策……避免決策失誤的最佳指引 ★強力推薦 台大經濟系副教授馮勃翰 年度暢銷書《人生路引》作者楊斯棓醫師 本書是管理決策最新觀念的精采入門。出乎意料的是，本書讀來也饒富興味。 ──丹尼爾．康納曼，《快思慢想》作者 Netflix曾經向百視達提議併購，但百視達回絕了。 如今，百視達破產，Netflix事業一飛衝天，百視達到底犯了什麼錯？ 蘋果專賣店原本是成功的商業典範， 為何傑西潘尼公司以同樣的模式開設專賣店卻差點破產， 傑西潘尼公司的領導人掉入什麼決策陷阱？ 在生活與職場中，隨時隨地都在做決策。 但即使是最聰明、最有經驗的人， 都有可能頻繁犯下難以察覺、但可以避免的錯誤。 這些決策偏誤非常常見，像是： ．至少有兩代的人都相信過可以用飛在天空的飛機找出石油礦藏→確認偏誤 ．許多人以為只要模仿賈伯斯之類的典範人物就會成功→歸因謬誤＋光環效應＋倖存者偏誤 ．雖然巴菲特過往都反對企業管理階層使用股票選擇權當作薪酬獎勵， 但在可口可樂董事會上卻默許這樣的薪酬獎勵通過→群體迷思 ．全球食品大廠桂格的執行長盲目相信自己的直覺， 以過高的價格收購斯納普，結果慘敗收場→直覺陷阱＋慣性偏誤 ．通用汽車加碼投資失敗的釷星事業單位， 最後釷星仍然無法起死回生→沉沒成本謬誤 麥肯錫資深管理顧問奧利維．席波尼擅長用說故事的方式講解商業策略。 在本書中，他藉由許多知名商業案例歸納9種常見的決策陷阱， 並提煉出務實可行的40種技巧，包括促進對話的技巧、 從不同角度看待事物與改善決策的流程和文化， 引領我們戰勝人性弱點，做出明智、有效的決策！ 本書特色： 1.行為經濟學專家用淺顯易懂的故事，讓我們學會零錯誤的決策思考。 2.在高度競爭卻又強調合作的年代，更需要建立有助決策的團隊與流程。 3.各章附上簡短摘要，加上詳實的附錄，讓你輕鬆複習重點，清楚又實用。 作者簡介 奧利維．席波尼 教授、作家和企業顧問，專門研究策略思維與決策流程的設計。 他在巴黎高等商學院（HEC Paris）教導策略、決策與問題解決課程， 並擔任牛津大學賽德商學院（Saïd Business School）副研究員。 此外，他長期在麥肯錫公司（McKinsey＆Company）巴黎、紐約辦事處擔任顧問與合夥人， 也在歐洲許多機構任職，以顧問或董事會成員的身份為商業領袖提供諮詢。 席波尼的研究專注在藉由減少偏誤的影響來增進決策品質。 他也是許多學術及一般出版品的作者， 與諾貝爾經濟學獎得主康納曼合著新書《Noise》。 譯者簡介 周宜芳 讀過幾年書，識得一些字，現為自由譯者、全職媽媽， 分身於書房與廚房，在創造裡領受無窮樂趣。

Recettes toutes faites, biais de confirmation, solutions a priori... Les écueils à éviter sont nombreux lorsqu’il s’agit de résoudre un problème complexe. Mal aiguillée, l’intuition n’est pas toujours notre alliée. Il en va de même pour l’expertise, qui rétrécit parfois notre champ de vision. Alors comment s’assurer qu’on a bien trouvé la solution ? Ce trio d’experts en stratégie présente une méthode en quatre étapes pour devenir un pro de la résolution de problèmes. S’appuyant sur les meilleures pratiques des cabinets de conseil, sur les dernières recherches en psychologie cognitive et sur des études de cas concrets, ils nous expliquent comment identifier, poser et décortiquer un problème donné ; comment tester des hypothèses ou bâtir des arbres de questions ; comment utiliser le design thinking pour générer des solutions créatives ; et comment, au bout du compte, communiquer efficacement sur les solutions trouvées. À vous de jouer : vous allez trouver la solution !

Discusses why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones by reducing the influence of "noise"--variables that can cause bias in decision making--and draws on examples in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, strategy, and personnel selection.

Discusses why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones by reducing the influence of "noise"--variables that can cause bias in decision making--and draws on examples in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, strategy, and personnel selection.

u003eu003e „Mistrovský úvod do umění manažerského rozhodování. A navíc je to překvapivě zábavné čtení.“ – Daniel Kahneman, nositel Nobelovy ceny a autor knihy Myšlení, rychlé a pomalé u003cu003c # O knize Seznam osudově špatných rozhodnutí v byznysu je dlouhý: příliš silná či slabá důvěra v inovace, podcenění konkurence, lpění na prodělečných akvizicích... Jsou lídři stojící za kolapsy firem skutečně tak nezkušení, nebo přímo špatní? Určitě ne! Díky čtyřiceti letům výzkumů na poli kognitivních věd a behaviorální ekonomie víme, že se při „racionálním“ rozhodování dopouštíme celé řady systematických omylů – kognitivních zkreslení. Ta vlastní si bohužel už z jejich podstaty nedokážeme uvědomit, a tak do jejich pasti padáme stále znovu a znovu. Francouzský psycholog a konzultant Olivier Sibony naštěstí nabízí lídrům a manažerům účinné metody, jak zkreslení zásadně omezit díky vhodnému nastavení firemní architektury rozhodování. V knize se mimo jiné dozvíte: - Že nastavení rozhodovacího procesu má při investičních rozhodnutích šestkrát větší váhu než analýzy. - Proč naše mysl miluje storytelling a do jakých dalších pastí se byznysoví lídři nejčastěji chytají. - V čem vám pomůže metoda „předčasné pitvy“ a jak vás usměrní „šest amigos“. - Jakými nástroji ve firmě podporovat otevřenou diskusi a přitom se vyhnout rozhodovací paralýze. - Při jakých typech klíčových rozhodnutí můžeme efektivně využít intuici. # O autorovi Olivier Sibony (* 1967) je univerzitní profesor, spisovatel a poradce specializující se na kvalitu strategického myšlení a rozhodovací procesy. Pětadvacet let působil jako konzultant McKinsey & Company v Paříži a New Yorku, na mezinárodní škole HEC učí firemní strategii, komunikaci a rozhodování problémů. Mimo jiné je také docentem Saïd Business School na Oxfordské univerzitě. # Více o knize http://www.melvil.cz/kniha-strasna-chyba Sdílejte s hashtagem #strasnachyba

''A masterful introduction to the state of the art in managerial decision-making. Surprisingly, it is also a pleasure to read'' – Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow A lively, research-based tour of nine common decision-making traps – and practical tools for avoiding them – from a professor of strategic thinking We make decisions all the time. It''s so natural that we hardly stop to think about it. Yet even the smartest and most experienced among us make frequent and predictable errors. So, what makes a good decision? Should we trust our intuitions, and if so, when? How can we avoid being tripped up by cognitive biases when we are not even aware of them? You''re About to Make a Terrible Mistake! offers clear and practical advice that distils the latest developments in behavioural economics and cognitive psychology into actionable tools for making clever, effective decisions in business and beyond.

Et si le management était aussi une science ? Voilà une thèse qui fera sourire les « vrais » scientifiques... mais qui, surtout, déroutera les dirigeants aguerris. Face à l’incertitude des décisions quotidiennes, à quoi peuvent-ils se fier, sinon à leur bon sens, à leur expérience et à leur jugement ? Au fil de ses chroniques dans la newsletter Time To Sign Off, Olivier Sibony montre pourtant que ce management superstitieux est source d’innombrables erreurs. Il en développe ici quarante illustrations concrètes et surprenantes, dans des domaines aussi variés que le recrutement, la créativité ou la décision en équipe. Chacun de ces exemples donnera aux managers des clés pour améliorer leurs décisions. Leur réunion dessine une vision moderne du management : une pratique, un art, bien sûr. Mais aussi un domaine où, comme ailleurs, la démarche scientifique s’impose.

Nous prenons tous constamment des décisions. Cela nous semble tellement naturel que nous n’avons pas l’impression d’avoir besoin pour cela d’une méthode particulière... Pourtant, même les meilleurs d’entre nous commettent régulièrement des erreurs prévisibles ! Alors qu’est-ce qu’une bonne décision ? Faut-il se fier à ses intuitions ? Comment remédier aux biais cognitifs qui nous égarent alors que nous n’en avons même pas conscience ? Dans ce livre nourri de son expérience et des derniers travaux de l’économie comportementale, Olivier Sibony passe en revue nos erreurs les plus fréquentes. Il développe une méthode pour les éviter en mobilisant l’intelligence collective, et propose des solutions concrètes pour permettre à chaque lecteur d’inventer son propre «art de décider». Vous allez prendre d’excellentes décisions !

Many decisions about strategy require that senior executives make evaluative judgments on the basis of extensive, complex information. A disciplined, sequential approach can mitigate common errors and improve the quality of both one-off and recurrent decisions in an array of business domains. The process described in this article is easy to learn, involves little additional work, and (within limits) leaves room for intuition.

Solving complex problems and selling their solutions is critical for personal and organizational success. For most of us, however, it doesn’t come naturally and we haven’t been taught how to do it well. Research shows a host of pitfalls trips us up when we try: We’re quick to believe we understand a situation and jump to a flawed solution. We seek to confirm our hypotheses and ignore conflicting evidence. We view challenges incompletely through the frameworks we know instead of with a fresh pair of eyes. And when we communicate our recommendations, we forget our reasoning isn’t obvious to our audience. How can we do it better? In Cracked It!, seasoned strategy professors and consultants Bernard Garrette, Corey Phelps and Olivier Sibony present a rigorous and practical four-step approach to overcome these pitfalls. Building on tried-and-tested (but rarely revealed) methods of top strategy consultants, research in cognitive psychology, and the latest advances in design thinking, they provide a step-by-step process and toolkit that will help readers tackle any challenging business problem. Using compelling stories and detailed case examples, the authors guide readers through each step in the process: from how to state, structure and then solve problems to how to sell the solutions. Written in an engaging style by a trio of experts with decades of experience researching, teaching and consulting on complex business problems, this book will be an indispensable manual for anyone interested in creating value by helping their organizations crack the problems that matter most.

Previous studies of strategic decision making have demonstrated a relationship between the strategic decision-making process and its effectiveness, namely whether the decision delivers the expected results. In this article, we demonstrate that there are two key dimensions of strategic decision-making: (1) the analysis performed, and particularly financial aspects of a decision; and (2) strategic conversations about the decision at hand, or the “disinterested dialogue” about the decision, as we refer to it. Whereas it is well accepted that a robust analysis is important for effective decisions, we argue that disinterested dialogue is also a necessary construct in explaining the effectiveness of strategic decisions. To test this hypothesis, we undertook a study of 634 strategic decisions made by executives across multiple industries and regions. The results confirmed that both a robust analysis and disinterested dialogue have a significant positive relationship with decision-making effectiveness. However, disinterested dialogue has a significantly greater impact on the effectiveness of strategic decisions than robustness of analysis. We discuss the impact of our results for theory and practice.