Most Popular Books by Niall Ferguson

La idea de que el dinero hace girar el mundo es una nocion seductora. El cambio economico parece haber sido el primer motor del cambio politico, tanto en la era de la industria como en la de Internet. Niall Ferguson desafia este supuesto al ofrecer una historia radicalmente nueva sobre el nexo entre el dinero y el poder. A lo largo de la historia moderna b"sostiene el autor- han sido tanto las finanzas como las armas las que han decidido los destinos de las naciones en la gran prueba de la guerra. Todavia hoy nuestras vidas estan dominadas por instituciones originadas en tiempos de guerra: el impuesto sobre la renta, los parlamentos, las deudas nacionales, los bancos centrales e incluso las bolsas. El poder politico puede estar mas vinculado a la financiacion de las campanas que a la prosperidad del periodo pre-electoral; pero deberiamos invertir mas, y no menos, en le proceso democratico. La globalizacion financiera sin una autoridad imperial definida puede ser demasiado inestable; en comparacion con las superpotencias del pasado, Estado Unidos esta negandose a asumir sus responsabilidades internacionales. Las burbujas y las crisis financieras pueden ser presagios de una crisis mas profunda que podria detener el avance de la democracia y el capitalismo. Esta obra constituye una sintesis audaz de la historia politica y de la teoria economica moderna que presenta conclusiones desafiantes e inquietantes sobre el futuro del capitalismo y de la democracia.

For the better part of the past decade, the world economy has been dominated by a world economic order that combined Chinese export-led development with US over-consumption. The financial crisis of 2007-2009 likely marks the beginning of the end of the Chimerican relationship. In this paper we look at this era as economic historians, trying to set events in a longer-term perspective. In some ways China''s economic model in the decade 1998-2007 was similar to the one adopted by West Germany and Japan after World War II. Trade surpluses with the U.S. played a major role in propelling growth. But there were two key differences. First, the scale of Chinese currency intervention was without precedent, as were the resulting distortions of the world economy. Second, the Chinese have so far resisted the kind of currency appreciation to which West Germany and Japan consented. We conclude that Chimerica cannot persist for much longer in its present form. As in the 1970s, sizeable changes in exchange rates are needed to rebalance the world economy. A continuation of Chimerica at a time of dollar devaluation would give rise to new and dangerous distortions in the global economy.

"В своей новой книге знаменитый историк Ниал Фергюсон дает обзор самых разных катастроф, случившихся в истории человечества: геологических, геополитических, биологических, технологических. Он рассматривает причины и последствия конкретных бедствий, в том числе пандемии COVID-19, а также в целом то, каким образом люди и общества реагируют на катастрофы и пытаются их предсказать. Опираясь на несколько научных дисциплин, среди которых экономика, клиодинамика и наука о сетях, Фергюсон пишет не только историю, но и общую теорию катастроф, и показывает, почему наши все более бюрократизированные и сложные системы управления все хуже справляются с ними."--

Historische analyse van de oorzaken, het verloop en de gevolgen van de Eerste Wereldoorlog.

Chinese edition of The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World by Niall Ferguson In Traditional Chinese. Distributed by Tsai Fong Books, Inc.

This paper asks whether developing countries can reap credibility gains from submitting policy to a strict monetary rule. Following earlier work, we look at the gold standard era (1880-1914) as a "natural experiment" to test whether adoption of a rule-based monetary framework such as the gold standard increased policy credibility. On the basis of the largest possible dataset covering almost sixty independent and colonial borrowers in the London market, we challenge the traditional view that gold standard adherence worked as a credible commitment mechanism that was rewarded by financial markets with lower borrowing costs. We demonstrate that in the poor periphery -- where policy credibility is a particularly acute problem -- the market looked behind "the thin film of gold". Our results point to a dichotomy: whereas country risk premia fell after gold adoption in developed countries, there were no credibility gains in the volatile economic and political environments of developing countries. History shows that monetary policy rules are no short-cut to credibility in situations where vulnerability to economic and political shocks, not time-inconsistency, are overarching concerns for investors.