New Releases by Niall Ferguson

This paper studies the evolution of central bank balance sheets over the past 400 years across 17 major economies. The size of central bank balance sheets has varied substantially over time relative to economic and financial activity. Major balance sheet expansions were initially associated with government finance in geopolitical emergencies, but over time liquidity provision during financial turmoil has become the key driver of balance sheet operations. We examine the historical record of such lender of last resort interventions with a novel identification strategy based on pre-determined ideological beliefs of acting central bank governors ("hawks" vs. "doves") with respect to financial sector support. Using exogenous variation in the crisis response, we estimate the effects of lender of last resort operations on the economy. History shows that liquidity support during financial crises has indeed tended to stabilize the economy successfully: crises are less severe, asset prices recover more quickly, and deflation is avoided. However, there is also evidence that the provision of central bank liquidity to financial markets raises the probability of future boom-bust episodes, pointing to potential moral hazard effects of central bank intervention.

"All disasters are in some sense man-made." Setting the annus horribilis of 2020 in historical perspective, Niall Ferguson explains why we are getting worse, not better, at handling disasters. Disasters are inherently hard to predict. Pandemics, like earthquakes, wildfires, financial crises. and wars, are not normally distributed; there is no cycle of history to help us anticipate the next catastrophe. But when disaster strikes, we ought to be better prepared than the Romans were when Vesuvius erupted, or medieval Italians when the Black Death struck. We have science on our side, after all. Yet in 2020 the responses of many developed countries, including the United States, to a new virus from China were badly bungled. Why? Why did only a few Asian countries learn the right lessons from SARS and MERS? While populist leaders certainly performed poorly in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, Niall Ferguson argues that more profound pathologies were at work--pathologies already visible in our responses to earlier disasters. In books going back nearly twenty years, including Colossus, The Great Degeneration, and The Square and the Tower, Ferguson has studied the foibles of modern America, from imperial hubris to bureaucratic sclerosis and online fragmentation. Drawing from multiple disciplines, including economics, cliodynamics, and network science, Doom offers not just a history but a general theory of disasters, showing why our ever more bureaucratic and complex systems are getting worse at handling them. Doom is the lesson of history that this country--indeed the West as a whole--urgently needs to learn, if we want to handle the next crisis better, and to avoid the ultimate doom of irreversible decline.

The instant New York Times bestseller. A brilliant recasting of the turning points in world history, including the one we''re living through, as a collision between old power hierarchies and new social networks. “Captivating and compelling.” —The New York Times "Niall Ferguson has again written a brilliant book...In 400 pages you will have restocked your mind. Do it." —The Wall Street Journal “The Square and the Tower, in addition to being provocative history, may prove to be a bellwether work of the Internet Age.” —Christian Science Monitor Most history is hierarchical: it''s about emperors, presidents, prime ministers and field marshals. It''s about states, armies and corporations. It''s about orders from on high. Even history "from below" is often about trade unions and workers'' parties. But what if that''s simply because hierarchical institutions create the archives that historians rely on? What if we are missing the informal, less well documented social networks that are the true sources of power and drivers of change? The 21st century has been hailed as the Age of Networks. However, in The Square and the Tower, Niall Ferguson argues that networks have always been with us, from the structure of the brain to the food chain, from the family tree to freemasonry. Throughout history, hierarchies housed in high towers have claimed to rule, but often real power has resided in the networks in the town square below. For it is networks that tend to innovate. And it is through networks that revolutionary ideas can contagiously spread. Just because conspiracy theorists like to fantasize about such networks doesn''t mean they are not real. From the cults of ancient Rome to the dynasties of the Renaissance, from the founding fathers to Facebook, The Square and the Tower tells the story of the rise, fall and rise of networks, and shows how network theory--concepts such as clustering, degrees of separation, weak ties, contagions and phase transitions--can transform our understanding of both the past and the present. Just as The Ascent of Money put Wall Street into historical perspective, so The Square and the Tower does the same for Silicon Valley. And it offers a bold prediction about which hierarchies will withstand this latest wave of network disruption--and which will be toppled.

Is it time to reaffirm our liberal values? Or are we seeing the birth-pangs of a new era? Two great thinkers debate the question burning behind headlines across the world. ‘No civilization, no matter how mighty it may appear to itself, is indestructible.’ –Niall Ferguson ‘We do not need to invent the world anew. The international order established by the United States after World War II is in need of expansion and repair, but not reconception.’ –Fareed Zakaria Fears of a globalized world are rampant. Across the West, borders are being reasserted and old alliances tested to their limits. Could this be the end of the liberal order or will the major crises of the twenty-first century strengthen our resolve?

In ALWAYS RIGHT historian Niall Ferguson offers a characteristically original, incisive and witty account of Margaret Thatcher''s reign – the word seems appropriate – as British Prime Minister. Denounced by her enemies as divisive and dictatorial, Thatcher was the greatest leader Britain has produced since Winston Churchill. The standard bearer for a decisive economic regime-change, she was also a social revolutionary who shook up the stagnant English class system. Yet she was a foreign policy realist, who restored her country’s standing in the world. And far from being an over-bearing prime minister, she ultimately fell victim to the machinations of Cabinet government. ALWAYS RIGHT is a fittingly frank assessment of a great woman who made history.

From the bestselling author of The Ascent of Money and The Square and the Tower, a searching and provocative examination of the widespread institutional rot that threatens our collective future What causes rich countries to lose their way? Symptoms of decline are all around us today: slowing growth, crushing debts, increasing inequality, aging populations, antisocial behavior. But what exactly has gone wrong? The answer, Niall Ferguson argues in The Great Degeneration, is that our institutions—the intricate frameworks within which a society can flourish or fail—are degenerating. With characteristic verve and historical insight, Ferguson analyzes the causes of this stagnation and its profound consequences for the future of the West. The Great Degeneration is an incisive indictment of an era of negligence and complacency—and to arrest the breakdown of our civilization, Ferguson warns, will take heroic leadership and radical reform.

The Cash Nexus is the controversial history of money''s central place in the world, from Niall Ferguson, bestselling author of Empire and Civilization Generations of historians have shied away from the truth behind the cliche: money makes the world go around. International bestseller Niall Ferguson answers the big questions about finance and its crucial place in bringing happiness and despair, warfare and welfare, boom and crash to nations buffeted by the onward march of history. Starting in 1700 and ending today, The Cash Nexus is a dazzling, powerful and controversial explanation of modern world history and the fundamental force that lurks behind it all. About the author: Niall Ferguson is one of Britain''s most renowned historians. He is the author of Paper and Iron, The House of Rothschild, The Pity of War, Empire, Colossus, The War of the World, The Ascent of Money, High Financier, Civilization and The Great Degeneration. He has written and presented six highly successful television series for Channel Four: Empire, American Colossus, The War of the World, The Ascent of Money, Civilization and China: Triumph and Turmoil.

This paper is a comment on Local Company Politics: A Proposal by Raymond J. Fisman and Eric Werker which can be found at: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2206524" http://ssrn.com/abstract=2206524.

Niall Ferguson''s acclaimed bestseller on the highs and lows of Britain''s empire ''A remarkably readable précis of the whole British imperial story - triumphs, deceits, decencies, kindnesses, cruelties and all'' Jan Morris Once vast swathes of the globe were coloured imperial red and Britannia ruled not just the waves, but the prairies of America, the plains of Asia, the jungles of Africa and the deserts of Arabia. Just how did a small, rainy island in the North Atlantic achieve all this? And why did the empire on which the sun literally never set finally decline and fall? Niall Ferguson''s acclaimed Empire brilliantly unfolds the imperial story in all its splendours and its miseries, showing how a gang of buccaneers and gold-diggers planted the seed of the biggest empire in all history - and set the world on the road to modernity. ''The most brilliant British historian of his generation ... Ferguson examines the roles of "pirates, planters, missionaries, mandarins, bankers and bankrupts" in the creation of history''s largest empire ... he writes with splendid panache ... and a seemingly effortless, debonair wit'' Andrew Roberts ''Dazzling ... wonderfully readable'' New York Review of Books ''Empire is a pleasure to read and brims with insights and intelligence'' Sunday Times

Excerpted from Niall Ferguson’s sprawling bestseller The War of the World, The Abyss now stands on its own as one of the most thrilling short histories of World War I ever written. This is not a conventional military history about battles and generals. Rather, The Abyss examines how World War I saw the birth of total war—fought between societies as much as armies—and must therefore be understood in terms of the financial crises it unleashed, the multinational empires it destroyed, and the hateful ideas it propagated. The most remarkable thing about the war, Ferguson shows us, is how shockingly unexpected it was. At a time when economic integration and technology seemed to be rendering war between great powers impossible, World War I was the moment when that process went into reverse and the lethal forces of ethnic disintegration took over. Now, on the cusp of the 100th anniversary of its outbreak, we can see World War I as much more than just four years of industrialized slaughter. Weaving together the economics of empire and the ideology of race—and featuring an original preface by the author as well a teaser from his new paperback Civilization—The Abyss is world history at its finest.

From the bestselling author of The Ascent of Money and The Square and the Tower “A dazzling history of Western ideas.” —The Economist “Mr. Ferguson tells his story with characteristic verve and an eye for the felicitous phrase.” —Wall Street Journal “[W]ritten with vitality and verve . . . a tour de force.” —Boston Globe Western civilization’s rise to global dominance is the single most important historical phenomenon of the past five centuries. How did the West overtake its Eastern rivals? And has the zenith of Western power now passed? Acclaimed historian Niall Ferguson argues that beginning in the fifteenth century, the West developed six powerful new concepts, or “killer applications”—competition, science, the rule of law, modern medicine, consumerism, and the work ethic—that the Rest lacked, allowing it to surge past all other competitors. Yet now, Ferguson shows how the Rest have downloaded the killer apps the West once monopolized, while the West has literally lost faith in itself. Chronicling the rise and fall of empires alongside clashes (and fusions) of civilizations, Civilization: The West and the Rest recasts world history with force and wit. Boldly argued and teeming with memorable characters, this is Ferguson at his very best.

Is China''s rise unstoppable? Powered by the human capital of 1.3 billion citizens, the latest technological advances, and a comparatively efficient system of state-directed capitalism, China seems poised to become the global superpower this century. But the Middle Kingdom also faces a series of challenges. From energy scarcity to environmental degradation to political unrest and growing global security burdens, a host of factors could derail China''s global ascent. In this edition of The Munk Debates - Canada''s premier international debate series - former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and CNN''s Fareed Zakaria square off against leading historian Niall Ferguson and world-renowned economist David Daokui Li to debate the biggest geopolitical issue of our time: Does the 21st century belong to China? Highly electrifying and thoroughly engrossing, the Munk Debate on China is the first formal public debate Dr. Kissinger has participated in on China''s future, and includes exclusive interviews with Henry Kissinger and David Daokui Li.

In the 2010 John Boynthon Lecture, economic historian Niall Ferguson argues America, with its debt levels and its unwillingness to address the problem, is a superpower on the edge of chaos. Reviews primacy, leadership, and the complex factors behind the rise and fall of great powers.

This paper asks whether developing countries can reap credibility gains from submitting policy to a strict monetary rule. Following earlier work, we look at the gold standard era (1880-1914) as a quot;natural experimentquot; to test whether adoption of a rule-based monetary framework such as the gold standard increased policy credibility. On the basis of the largest possible dataset covering almost sixty independent and colonial borrowers in the London market, we challenge the traditional view that gold standard adherence worked as a credible commitment mechanism that was rewarded by financial markets with lower borrowing costs. We demonstrate that in the poor periphery -- where policy credibility is a particularly acute problem -- the market looked behind quot;the thin film of goldquot;. Our results point to a dichotomy: whereas country risk premia fell after gold adoption in developed countries, there were no credibility gains in the volatile economic and political environments of developing countries. History shows that monetary policy rules are no short-cut to credibility in situations where vulnerability to economic and political shocks, not time-inconsistency, are overarching concerns for investors.

For the better part of the past decade, the world economy has been dominated by a world economic order that combined Chinese export-led development with US over-consumption. The financial crisis of 2007-2009 likely marks the beginning of the end of the Chimerican relationship. In this paper we look at this era as economic historians, trying to set events in a longer-term perspective. In some ways China''s economic model in the decade 1998-2007 was similar to the one adopted by West Germany and Japan after World War II. Trade surpluses with the U.S. played a major role in propelling growth. But there were two key differences. First, the scale of Chinese currency intervention was without precedent, as were the resulting distortions of the world economy. Second, the Chinese have so far resisted the kind of currency appreciation to which West Germany and Japan consented. We conclude that Chimerica cannot persist for much longer in its present form. As in the 1970s, sizeable changes in exchange rates are needed to rebalance the world economy. A continuation of Chimerica at a time of dollar devaluation would give rise to new and dangerous distortions in the global economy.

This paper reassesses the importance of colonial status to investors before 1914 by means of multivariable regression analysis of the data available to contemporaries. We show that British colonies were able to borrow in London at significantly lower rates of interest than non-colonies precisely because of their colonial status, which mattered more than either gold convertibility or a balanced budget. Allowing for differences not only in monetary and fiscal policy but also in economic development and location, the acirc;not;SEmpire effectacirc;not;? was a discount of around 100 basis points. We conclude that investors saw colonial status as a no-default guarantee.

In the summer of 1992, hedge fund manager George Soros was contemplating the possibility that the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) would break down. Designed to pave the way for a full-scale European Monetary Union, the ERM was a system of fixed exchange rates linking together twelve members of the European Union, including Britain, France, Germany, and Italy. However, the impact of German reunification after 1989 had created significant strains within the system. Moreover, financial deregulation and the growth of cross-border flows of ''hot" money increased the likelihood that a speculative attack on one or more ERM currencies might succeed. Soros had to decide which currencies to bet against. The Italian lira? The British pound? The French franc? Or all three? The result could determine the success or failure of the project for a single European currency.

What if there had been no American War of Independence? What if Hitler had invaded Britain? What if Kennedy had lived? What if Russia had won the Cold War? Niall Ferguson, author of the highly acclaimed The Pity of War, leads the charge in this historically rigorous series of separate voyages into “imaginary time” and provides far-reaching answers to these intriguing questions.Ferguson''s brilliant 90-page introduction doubles as a manifesto on the methodology of counter-factual history. His equally masterful afterword traces the likely historical ripples that would have proceeded from the maintenance of Stuart rule in England. This breathtaking narrative gives us a convincing, detailed “alternative history” of the West—from the accession of “James III” in 1701, to a Nazi-occupied England, to a U.S. Prime Minister Kennedy who lives to complete his term.

From a bestselling historian, a daringly revisionist history of World War I The Pity of War makes a simple and provocative argument: the human atrocity known as the Great War was entirely England''s fault. According to Niall Ferguson, England entered into war based on naive assumptions of German aims, thereby transforming a Continental conflict into a world war, which it then badly mishandled, necessitating American involvement. The war was not inevitable, Ferguson argues, but rather was the result of the mistaken decisions of individuals who would later claim to have been in the grip of huge impersonal forces. That the war was wicked, horrific, and inhuman is memorialized in part by the poetry of men like Wilfred Owen and Siegfried Sassoon, but also by cold statistics. Indeed, more British soldiers were killed in the first day of the Battle of the Somme than Americans in the Vietnam War. And yet, as Ferguson writes, while the war itself was a disastrous folly, the great majority of men who fought it did so with little reluctance and with some enthusiasm. For anyone wanting to understand why wars are fought, why men are willing to fight them and why the world is as it is today, there is no sharper or more stimulating guide than Niall Ferguson''s The Pity of War.

The Caledonian Railway was the largest of the three Scottish companies to go into the London Midland & Scottish Railway at the grouping in 1923. This book looks at how the ''Caley'' system fared in the ownership of the LMS in which it became the dominant partner of the latter''s Northern Division.

Every book tells a story . . .And the 70 titles in the Pocket Penguins series are emblematic of the renowned breadth and quality that formed part of the original Penguin vision in 1935 and that continue to define our publishing today. Together, they tell one version of the unique story of Penguin Books. One of Penguin''s bestselling non-fiction authors, Niall Ferguson has been hailed as the most brilliant historian of his generation for his fresh, provocative and controversial approach to subjects ranging from money to empires. 1914- Why the World Went to Warhas been specially adapted from Ferguson''s bestselling The Pity of War (1998). It is a radical reassessment of how the world hurtled into catastrophe in 1914.

Osteoporosis is a major healthcare problem, affecting the lives of many individuals worldwide. In the UK alone, up to 200,000 osteoporosis-related fractures occur annually - a figure that is set to increase as the population ages. Pharmacists see many patients with osteoporosis, and thus will benefit from a deeper understanding of this disease. Osteoporosis in Focus contains a clear, concise discussion of osteoporosis and reviews the role of the pharmacist in counselling patients on their illness, lifestyle and medicines. Chapter topics include prevention, monitoring the condition, clinical interventions, drug treatment, hormone replacement therapy, bisphosphonates, screening and pharmaceutical care.The third book of the ''in Focus'' series, Osteoporosis in Focus should be read by all pharmacists as well as by healthcare professionals with an interest in osteoporosis.Niall Ferguson is Chief Pharmacist at Milton Keynes General Hospital, UK