New Releases by Alastair Smith

A theory of politics that looks at what did not happen—or non-events—to explain policy change, economic development, democratization, and “autocratization.” Anticipating Instability puts forward a general theory of politics that attempts to explain the very many destabilizing political events in history that did not happen. Although most of us do not pay close attention to what did not occur, research shows that fear of non-events does more to redefine how people are governed than does the actual realization of coups and revolutions. In unraveling the dogs that didn’t bark, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith analyze how, when, and why leaders who believe their hold on power is at risk focus their political survival efforts on adjusting their policy choices or shifting their government’s accountability. Such adjustments are the essential factors that determine whether a society becomes freer, more transparent, and prosperous—or more oppressive, corrupt, and impoverished. The book is unique in that it develops a general theory of politics using game theory reasoning and then tests dozens of hypotheses derived from the theory’s logic using both statistical methods and illustrative case studies.

Un libro revelador sobre la anatomía del poder que analiza y enumera las malas prácticas de los representantes demócratas, dictadores, líderes políticos y grandes empresas para mantenerse en el poder. «El príncipe de Maquiavelo tiene un nuevo rival: El manual del dictador es una lectura deslumbrante y estimulante». Enlightenment Economics «En este libro, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita y Alastair Smith nos enseñan a ver la dictadura como otra forma de política, y desde esta perspectiva profundizan nuestra comprensión de todos los sistemas políticos». ROGER MYERSON, Universidad de Chicago «Una meditación, lúcidamente escrita y sagazmente expuesta, sobre el modo en que demócratas y dictadores conservan la autoridad política... El lector se verá en apuros para encontrar un solo gobierno que no actúe en buena medida según el modelo de El manual del dictador». Wall Street Journal ¿Por qué muchos dirigentes que han arruinado a sus países se mantienen tanto tiempo en el poder? ¿Cómo puede ser que países ricos en recursos tengan a gran parte de la población en la pobreza? ¿Por qué las autocracias tienen unas políticas económicas tan funestas? ¿Por qué a las democracias se les da tan bien la guerra? Desde hace dos décadas, y tras examinar los éxitos y fracasos de autócratas, demócratas y jefes ejecutivos, los politólogos Bruce Bueno de Mesquita y Alastair Smith han concluido que los líderes están dispuestos a hacer cualquier cosa para mantenerse en el poder. Asimismo, realizan en este libro un análisis de las grandes empresas y de sus presidentes, del Tea Party o de algunas de las guerras más recientes. En definitiva, El manual del dictador revela la lógica de la política y explica casi todo lo que necesitamos saber acerca de cómo se dirigen los países y las empresas.

When the United States invaded Iraq, President Bush made it clear: the U.S. was not fighting the Iraqi people. Rather, all quarrels were solely with Iraq''s leadership. This kind of assertion remains frequent in foreign affairs--sanctions or military actions are imposed on a nation not because of its people, but because of its misguided leaders. Although the distinction might seem pedantic since the people suffer regardless, Punishing the Prince reveals how targeting individual leaders for punishment rather than the nations they represent creates incentives for cooperation between nations and leaves room for future relations with pariah states. Punishing the Prince demonstrates that theories of leader punishment explain a great deal about international behavior and interstate relations. The book examines the impact that domestic political institutions have on whether citizens hold their leaders accountable for international commitments and shows that the degrees to which citizens are able to remove leaders shape the dynamics of interstate relations and leader turnover. Through analyses of sovereign debt, international trade, sanctions, and crisis bargaining, Fiona McGillivray and Alastair Smith also uncover striking differences in patterns of relations between democratic and autocratic states. Bringing together a vast body of information, Punishing the Prince offers new ways of thinking about international relations.

An illustrated tour of the universe, from our closest planetary neighbours, Mars and Venus, to star constellations, galaxies and black holes millions of light years away. With photographs, detailed illustrations and fascinating information about space, plus tips on trying astronomy at home and internet links to websites with the latest space news.

If you want to use a bike in your daily life - to get to work, play, school and the shops - this is the book you have been waiting for, an informative, comprehensive and inspiring guide that helps beginners get started and experienced cyclists ride more confidently, safely and enjoyably. Discover how to: select the right bike - or improve the bike you have choose accessories for safety, visibility and efficiency learn safe, effective cycling skills manoeuvre through traffic and complex road layouts carry loads safely and well handle challenging terrain and weather deal with mechanical problems such as flat tyres safely introduce your children to cycling

Theories that link domestic politics, domestic institutional structures, and leader incentives to foreign affairs have flowered in the past 25 years or so. By unpacking institutional variation across states and by drawing attention to agency issues between leaders, key backers, and citizens, models and empirical studies of linkage help explain even such fundamental phenomena between states as war and peace. In addition, theories of linkage politics explain phenomena not envisioned under earlier unitary-actor state models. We address how the linkage literature explains war and peace decisions, the democratic peace, nation building, foreign aid, and economic sanctions by tying international politics and foreign policy to domestic political considerations.

Explains the theory of political survival, particularly in cases of dictators and despotic governments, arguing that political leaders seek to stay in power using any means necessary, most commonly by attending to the interests of certain coalitions.

Political leaders face both internal and external threats to their tenure as leaders. To retain office leaders need mass support, for instance to win elections. However, they also need to deal with potential internal party rivals. Using a game theoretic model, we examine how the incentives created by these competing pressures affect the retention of ministers across different political systems. Since non-democratic leaders face relatively little threat from the masses, their concern is to reduce internal party risk. Therefore, they remove high performing ministers and retain mediocre and poor performers. As it becomes easier for the masses to replace the party in power, leaders must tradeoff internal and external threats. Retaining competent leaders improves party performance but generates an internal party rival.

This thesis provides an account of the way in which meaning associated with the term ''fair trade'' is negotiated within a number of discrete, yet interrelated communities, in a way which influences stakeholder understanding of the concept - and as a result, structures the way in which public procurement strategies integrate fair trade governance into their operation. Building from the identification of ''fair trade'' governance as a means to embed the intra-generational social justice concerns of sustainable development within the public procurement system, the thesis investigates how the ambiguous meaning of fair trade is reconciled in discourse and practice. Specifically focusing on the case study of Scotland - where Local Authorities are involved in a complex network of state and private governance initiatives - investigation reveals that despite various influences to the contrary, fair trade is strongly conflated with certification administered by the dominant global fair trade certifying body, Fairtrade International (FLO). However, exceptions are argued to demonstrate an active negotiation of this domination over meaning. In particular, one Authority has purchased ''fairly traded'' Kilombero rice - produced by members of the National Smallholder Farmers Association of Malawi (NASFAM) - as part of its fair trade strategy, by accepting claims of fairness not on the basis of external certification, but on trust from a socially orientated import organisation. Extending the study along the supply chain, investigation reveals that while the producer organisation sees fair trade as beneficial to their overall objectives, they identify significant limitations with the FLO approach. For this reason they have pursued World Fair Trade Organisation (WFTO) accreditation in order to back their claims to fair trade operation. As such, the dominance of FLO certification is seen to be actively contested as part of a wider dynamic in which different approaches vie to influence the understanding, and therefore the praxis of stakeholders.

This updated edition shows you the universe, using the latest amazing information from astronomers around the world, and space probes around the galaxy. This book includes practical information on home astronomy and buying and using equipment.

Presents encyclopedic information on various fields of scientific study, including physics, chemistry, biology, astronomy, and Earth science.

A comprehensive and inspiring guide to drawing and painting subjects, ranging from people and animals to dinosaurs and buildings with plenty of full colour illustrations.

This kit comes with working weather instruments. Just follow the easy instructions and learn to calculate wind speed in MPH and perform many other meteorological activities, so you can become an amateur meteorologist. Kit includes Weather Spotter''s Guide book, anemometer for measuring wind speed, wind vane, rain gauge, snow gauge, thermometer on card for hanging on nail or by string, 60 second sand timer for use with anemometer, compass for directional settings for wind vane and information regarding how to use these instruments to gather data.

A basic introduction to weather, the elements that create weather, and how to identify different kinds of weather.

A basic introduction to weather, the elements that create weather, and how to identify different kinds of weather.

The authors of this ambitious book address a fundamental political question: why are leaders who produce peace and prosperity turned out of office while those who preside over corruption, war, and misery endure? Considering this political puzzle, they also answer the related economic question of why some countries experience successful economic development and others do not. The authors construct a provocative theory on the selection of leaders and present specific formal models from which their central claims can be deduced. They show how political leaders allocate resources and how institutions for selecting leaders create incentives for leaders to pursue good and bad public policy. They also extend the model to explain the consequences of war on political survival. Throughout the book, they provide illustrations from history, ranging from ancient Sparta to Vichy France, and test the model against statistics gathered from cross-national data. The authors explain the political intuition underlying their theory in nontechnical language, reserving formal proofs for chapter appendixes. They conclude by presenting policy prescriptions based on what has been demonstrated theoretically and empirically.

Night time shows little children what animals around the world get up to after dark. Featuring lively and humorous text with glorious illustrations. Ages 2+ years.

These books open up worlds inaccessible to the naked eye Fascinating yet practical beginner''s guides with an abundance of amazing photographs and realistic illustrations Include clearly explained activities, experiments and projects.

La mer est pleine de surprises. Viens donc voir... Tu découvriras une faune étonnante, du poisson capable de changer de forme aux monstres des grandes profondeurs qui brillent dans le noir. Et en soulevant les rabats, tu en verras d''autres derrière les algues et les rochers.

Endogenous election timing allows leaders to schedule elections ''when the time is right''. The author proposes and tests an informational theory of endogenous election timing that explains when leaders call for elections and the consequences of their decisions. In particular, he argues that, if all else is equal, leaders announce elections when they anticipate a decline in their future performance. As a consequence, early elections signal a leader''s lack of confidence in future outcomes. The earlier elections occur, relative to expectations, the stronger the signal of demise. Using data on British parliaments since 1945, the author tests hypotheses related to timing of elections, electoral support and subsequent economic performance. Leaders who call elections early (relative to expectations) experience a decline in their popular support relative to pre-announcement levels, experience worse post-electoral performance, and have shorter campaigns.